TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Khachanovof Khachanov, Michelsen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8165…f688backed Khachanov60c7,847$4,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.671546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michelsen22c5,665$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.598,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Michelsen40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michelsen43c4,778$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.7911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Khachanov60c4,176$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.3933955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Michelsen51c3,020$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.055658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Michelsen40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Michelsen40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Michelsen48c2,391$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.712,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Khachanov61c2,177$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.0523945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Michelsen41c1,858$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.452,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Michelsen40c1,658$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.977,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Khachanov63c1,504$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9799044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Khachanov62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5705457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Khachanov61c1,459$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.0213852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Khachanov80c1,200$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Michelsen18c1,027$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.352,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Michelsen50c1,009$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen39c891.56$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.7139144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Khachanov52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3841,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Khachanov53c660$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.26833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Michelsen46c659.6$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7919023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Michelsen36c583.14$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.712,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Khachanov54c532.33$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.478964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Michelsen41c499.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Khachanov64c448.03$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.382,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Khachanov67c422.29$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.762,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7945…f667backed Michelsen46c400$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Michelsen22c397.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.84,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen44c310.92$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Michelsen11c305$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb8…5466backed Michelsen46c272.93$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Khachanov53c264.15$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1517432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7800…6ddbbacked Khachanov61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.92669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Michelsen22c214.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1832031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8be…f991backed Michelsen42c201.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.647027.1%19 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Michelsen39c189.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7376140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x991e…3190backed Michelsen49c182.04$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…dc37backed Michelsen40c167.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Michelsen20c165.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.242,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Michelsen40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016158.4%94 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michelsen40c145.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1727944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Khachanov79c136$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.791,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Khachanov78c122$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3292548.8%451 W · 474 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Michelsen50c115.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2913834.1%47 W · 91 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Khachanov61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3925355.7%141 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc391…6cc8backed Michelsen45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455149%25 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab3…9f95backed Khachanov59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked Khachanov58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427266.7%48 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Michelsen42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4218863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Michelsen43c97.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.937041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Khachanov59c88.56$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6720257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca8…db1fbacked Khachanov58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2112344.7%55 W · 68 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Michelsen37c85.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8111122.5%25 W · 86 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Michelsen24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed Khachanov61c82.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3310965.1%71 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Khachanov61c76.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7322744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3e…d6d2backed Michelsen40c75.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Michelsen36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb32e…a46abacked Khachanov61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5714332.9%47 W · 96 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Michelsen40c63.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5618241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Michelsen47c51.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.98549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb490…91e7backed Khachanov59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.857647.4%36 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Michelsen42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216058.3%35 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc55…3f46backed Khachanov58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215074%37 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Michelsen41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…9b53backed Khachanov57c48.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.981478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Michelsen42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1634851.1%178 W · 170 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Michelsen42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1629519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Michelsen62c47.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.435944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Khachanov53c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1188455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85a9…bb66backed Khachanov60c41.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.917170.4%50 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Michelsen45c41.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9131434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Khachanov53c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2712846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe563…0cf5backed Michelsen40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked Michelsen41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e72…b2febacked Khachanov59c34.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.085360.4%32 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Khachanov60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3314272.5%103 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb220…5f71backed Khachanov60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Khachanov55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44835.4%17 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Michelsen47c31.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7385742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…bcf5backed Michelsen40c30.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Khachanov59c29.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2337339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Khachanov79c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.354450%22 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5338…f428backed Michelsen47c25.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x006f…6b0abacked Michelsen40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8117…75cabacked Michelsen40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Khachanov60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1036047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6a…6bd1backed Khachanov61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.