WNBA · resolved market
Sparks vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18705107da9ac75165d6e0a2f0afcb2b26443bb920f9a4eb71e849331c158f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sparksof Sparks, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Fever | 70c | 10,334$7,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,233.51 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Sparks | 36c | 8,855$3,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,653.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Fever | 70c | 8,149$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sparks | 28c | 7,861$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,669.82 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Sparks | 35c | 5,285$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.07 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sparks | 33c | 5,030$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.64 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Fever | 71c | 4,228$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Fever | 72c | 4,170$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Sparks | 29c | 4,052$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Fever | 67c | 2,248$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Sparks | 45c | 1,680$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Sparks | 31c | 1,472$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.04 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fever | 68c | 1,310$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.8 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fever | 67c | 1,238$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.11 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Sparks | 32c | 983.31$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.03 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sparks | 32c | 891.15$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.16 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Sparks | 30c | 507.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Fever | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Fever | 67c | 449.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Fever | 69c | 332.13$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sparks | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Fever | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 34c | 292.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.8 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Sparks | 35c | 286.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Sparks | 35c | 282.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Fever | 72c | 282$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Sparks | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Fever | 66c | 271.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…7a65backed Fever | 70c | 200.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sparks | 32c | 190$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Fever | 59c | 169.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Fever | 68c | 152$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sparks | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Fever | 75c | 133.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sparks | 33c | 132$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked Sparks | 30c | 120.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Fever | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Sparks | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fever | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Fever | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Sparks | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Sparks | 29c | 99.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed Sparks | 33c | 80.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Sparks | 33c | 74.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Sparks | 29c | 72.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sparks | 30c | 69.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Sparks | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…181cbacked Sparks | 28c | 60.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Fever | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fever | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Fever | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Sparks | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Fever | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Sparks | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sparks | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Fever | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Sparks | 37c | 33.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Fever | 67c | 33.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked Sparks | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Sparks | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Fever | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Fever | 73c | 23.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.