TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c2,478$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.321,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c913.76$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes34c776.16$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.0688628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b82…73c3backed No67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No59c303.8$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.541,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes39c300.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.819042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes36c280.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c270.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.14,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c254.6$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…04f7backed Yes7c252.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No66c251.59$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.722,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d7e…3660backed No63c194.12$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.45328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c191.17$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.172,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes28c178.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes22c172.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4716642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c171$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.674,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c168.04$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.962,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes38c153.97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.112,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No62c148.46$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.384,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf685…5ec9backed No73c136.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.482572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes37c122.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.427847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c111.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.664,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No67c105.95$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c104.89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.49,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c102$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3315258.6%89 W · 63 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3343959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.793,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No80c93.72$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.874,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c86.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.84656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No64c78.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7323560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes41c72.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3076936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes35c70.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.651,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No65c69.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.981,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No61c64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No73c59.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.047051.4%36 W · 34 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No62c58.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.082,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No61c53.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.593,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c50.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.391,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes31c50.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No70c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2171057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…f0d5backed Yes31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611770.9%83 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No63c36.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6131748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c35.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No63c31.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.949150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No69c31.12$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No61c31.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0451156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be5…bc8bbacked No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.75570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c29.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c29.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.172,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes40c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe2…eb81backed No70c25.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.632560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb218…6261backed Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.656850%34 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3837465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.627552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713167.2%88 W · 43 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd99c…8490backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.626067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.639768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.292761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdc…f5e4backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…6254backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f2…a18ebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No62c18.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No66c17.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9319965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59a…1dbfbacked No60c16.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No67c15.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1249359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.