Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf324ac954a786a2d7d8a465377329ea9f8365a7b23844bb8883bc6fd8ee9f131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 15c | 1,481$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 76c | 1,137$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.07 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 18c | 612.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 8c | 525$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 15c | 499.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 69c | 432.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed No | 11c | 407.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 11c | 404.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 235.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 28c | 233.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 16c | 147.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 144.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 43c | 128.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 9c | 127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 123.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 34c | 123.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 17c | 110.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 20c | 94.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 15c | 85.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 19c | 80.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbd…97e6backed No | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 60.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 58.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 23c | 53.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…38e4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +68%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 60c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 72c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?this page
- Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Kyle Little be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Matthew Adams be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Michael Anderson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Raymond Heck be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Susan Altman be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Tennille R. McCoy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
- Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.