UFC · resolved market
Belbita vs. Barbosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf405343bf18557b50c34827984ec00c756a9f2464f63340ca35a01b1cfd73e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Barbosaof Belbita, Barbosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Belbita | 12c | 5,024$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.91 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Belbita | 11c | 3,335$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Belbita | 10c | 1,356$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Belbita | 14c | 1,100$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Belbita | 9c | 740.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Belbita | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Belbita | 11c | 645.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Belbita | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Belbita | 9c | 330.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Belbita | 18c | 305.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Belbita | 8c | 298$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Belbita | 9c | 268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Belbita | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Belbita | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Belbita | 14c | 115.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Belbita | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Belbita | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Belbita | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Belbita | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…bcadbacked Belbita | 14c | 91.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belbita vs. Barbosathis page
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.