UFC · resolved market
Emmett vs. Murphy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12a1377ae5d819f944298567801bac72cc571f7a50d13985ca3b6aeb01fe3bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murphyof Emmett, Murphy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Murphy | 76c | 9,622$7,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.08 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Emmett | 24c | 9,487$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Emmett | 28c | 7,925$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.83 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Emmett | 19c | 7,762$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.38 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Murphy | 71c | 5,937$4,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.28 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Emmett | 16c | 4,666$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.68 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…964dbacked Murphy | 73c | 4,661$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Emmett | 20c | 4,563$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.32 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Emmett | 23c | 4,242$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.25 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Emmett | 26c | 4,048$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Emmett | 20c | 4,007$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.5 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Murphy | 76c | 4,000$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace4…bd19backed Emmett | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Murphy | 80c | 3,926$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.15 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Murphy | 76c | 3,291$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.24 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Emmett | 30c | 2,471$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Murphy | 71c | 1,705$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.69 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Murphy | 74c | 1,207$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.82 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Murphy | 71c | 1,182$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.65 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Murphy | 77c | 1,074$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Emmett | 28c | 1,056$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.2 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Murphy | 72c | 1,042$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Murphy | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Emmett | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Murphy | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Emmett | 24c | 840$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Emmett | 14c | 779.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…f1aabacked Emmett | 28c | 770$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Murphy | 73c | 699.97$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Emmett | 21c | 629.59$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Murphy | 72c | 606.94$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Emmett | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Murphy | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Emmett | 19c | 576.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Murphy | 74c | 540.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Murphy | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed Emmett | 27c | 510.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Emmett | 9c | 470$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Emmett | 23c | 437.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Murphy | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Murphy | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Emmett | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Emmett | 29c | 344.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Murphy | 75c | 331.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Murphy | 78c | 321.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Murphy | 71c | 306.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Emmett | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Emmett | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Murphy | 78c | 292.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Murphy | 72c | 276.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Emmett | 29c | 275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Murphy | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Murphy | 10c | 270.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Murphy | 73c | 260.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa193…cf8cbacked Emmett | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…78ccbacked Murphy | 72c | 215$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Murphy | 77c | 212$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Murphy | 72c | 205.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Murphy | 73c | 205.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Emmett | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Emmett | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…394ebacked Murphy | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…a356backed Murphy | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…4619backed Murphy | 73c | 183.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Murphy | 73c | 169.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Murphy | 73c | 164.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Emmett | 28c | 149.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…5546backed Murphy | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…bc7fbacked Murphy | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…896abacked Emmett | 28c | 132.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Emmett | 31c | 126.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked Emmett | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Emmett | 25c | 120.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Murphy | 77c | 115.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed Murphy | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Murphy | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…22cbbacked Emmett | 30c | 102.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed Murphy | 72c | 101.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Emmett | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…510dbacked Murphy | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Emmett | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Emmett | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…6af4backed Emmett | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…d566backed Murphy | 72c | 95.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b9…3be9backed Emmett | 26c | 94.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Emmett | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Murphy | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…add3backed Emmett | 27c | 84.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…b18cbacked Murphy | 74c | 82.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked Murphy | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Emmett | 37c | 79.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Emmett | 21c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed Murphy | 74c | 66.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked Emmett | 22c | 66.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Murphy | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…a60abacked Murphy | 75c | 58.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Murphy | 72c | 57.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked Murphy | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Emmett | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…49b2backed Emmett | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Emmett vs. Murphythis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.