UFC · resolved market
Demopoulos vs. Alencar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cb5b80f71f7f08f39f835f4a101426677a634e29c417d4d70465b7f321bd1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alencarof Demopoulos, Alencar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Demopoulos | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Alencar | 52c | 1,183$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.72 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Alencar | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.91 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Demopoulos | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alencar | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Demopoulos | 51c | 431$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Demopoulos | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Alencar | 54c | 375.72$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Demopoulos | 50c | 220.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Demopoulos | 51c | 216.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Demopoulos | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Demopoulos | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Demopoulos | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Demopoulos | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Demopoulos | 51c | 126.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Alencar | 51c | 105.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Demopoulos | 37c | 104.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Alencar | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Demopoulos | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…a4f0backed Demopoulos | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Alencar | 48c | 94.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Alencar | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Alencar | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…4628backed Alencar | 53c | 59.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Demopoulos | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…a48abacked Alencar | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Alencar | 64c | 54.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Demopoulos | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…dadfbacked Alencar | 51c | 44.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…886cbacked Alencar | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Demopoulos | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Demopoulos | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Alencar | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Demopoulos | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Alencar | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Alencar | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Demopoulos vs. Alencarthis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.