UFC · resolved market
Henry vs. Falcao
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf3abe97481725212b0550f8fedee022a12e5e650470f69d874786cf9caa4f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henryof Henry, Falcao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Henry | 64c | 2,945$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.21 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Falcao | 4c | 1,900$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Falcao | 8c | 1,076$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Falcao | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Henry | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Falcao | 7c | 818.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Falcao | 36c | 666$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Falcao | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Falcao | 36c | 489.61$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Falcao | 36c | 477.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Henry | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Falcao | 36c | 345$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Henry | 63c | 339.82$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Falcao | 36c | 281.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Falcao | 36c | 267.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Falcao | 33c | 265.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Henry | 68c | 223.5$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Falcao | 34c | 213.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Falcao | 30c | 184.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Falcao | 34c | 170$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Falcao | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…4628backed Falcao | 36c | 165.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Falcao | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Henry | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Henry | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Henry | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Falcao | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +914%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Henry | 66c | 78.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Henry | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Falcao | 33c | 74.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Falcao | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Falcao | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Henry | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Henry | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked Falcao | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…5080backed Henry | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Henry | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Falcao | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Henry | 76c | 22.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd5…8237backed Henry | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Henry vs. Falcaothis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.