UFC · resolved market
Osbourne vs. Gurule
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x430639fd8d3fbb999f190f36e23e1a99353d5f213365edbe2fc30bb67ba0e72a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osbourneof Osbourne, Gurule
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Gurule | 69c | 9,000$6,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,179.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Osbourne | 32c | 6,215$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,253.06 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Osbourne | 32c | 6,028$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Osbourne | 30c | 3,809$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Gurule | 10c | 2,400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Gurule | 68c | 2,318$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.24 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Osbourne | 74c | 1,860$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.36 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Gurule | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Gurule | 70c | 1,067$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.67 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Osbourne | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gurule | 69c | 869.71$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.1 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0d…b8f7backed Gurule | 71c | 816.9$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Gurule | 68c | 666$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.88 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Gurule | 68c | 658.06$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.42 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Osbourne | 32c | 630.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.44 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Gurule | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Gurule | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Gurule | 70c | 569.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Gurule | 71c | 560.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Osbourne | 31c | 419.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Osbourne | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Gurule | 68c | 310.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…e998backed Osbourne | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Gurule | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Gurule | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Gurule | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Gurule | 68c | 205$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Osbourne | 27c | 173.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Gurule | 68c | 145.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Gurule | 68c | 145$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Gurule | 70c | 126.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…a60abacked Osbourne | 32c | 121.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Osbourne | 31c | 119.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Osbourne | 29c | 104$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Gurule | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Gurule | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Gurule | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Gurule | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Gurule | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa193…cf8cbacked Osbourne | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Osbourne | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Gurule | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Gurule | 68c | 59.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Osbourne | 32c | 56.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Gurule | 68c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Gurule | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Gurule | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Osbourne vs. Gurulethis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.