UFC · resolved market
McKee vs. Frunza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f353f480cff35427e1e3d1896c70f80ff87f75a14392c1b8eea077a6ee62ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McKeeof McKee, Frunza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Frunza | 53c | 2,413$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Frunza | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Frunza | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Frunza | 54c | 1,127$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.58 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed McKee | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed McKee | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Frunza | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Frunza | 54c | 1,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.96 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed McKee | 46c | 665.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Frunza | 60c | 600$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.72 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Frunza | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed McKee | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked McKee | 40c | 275.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…b574backed McKee | 48c | 247.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked McKee | 46c | 236.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked McKee | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked McKee | 41c | 222.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Frunza | 58c | 216$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed McKee | 45c | 180.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked McKee | 46c | 131$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed McKee | 51c | 119$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed McKee | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Frunza | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed McKee | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed McKee | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed McKee | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed McKee | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Frunza | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Frunza | 54c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked McKee | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Frunza | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Frunza | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed McKee | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed McKee | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed McKee | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked McKee | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked McKee | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed McKee | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed McKee | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…b0a9backed Frunza | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- McKee vs. Frunzathis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.