UFC · resolved market
Finney vs. Valentin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8567136b20e0ff5b182cb45cffee82842d510fb107d49568a3e3dab6e8acda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Finneyof Finney, Valentin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Finney | 76c | 11,285$8,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.47 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Valentin | 25c | 6,096$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Valentin | 29c | 5,100$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Valentin | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Finney | 70c | 2,428$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.7 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Valentin | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Finney | 75c | 1,204$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.64 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Valentin | 23c | 1,111$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Valentin | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Valentin | 24c | 966$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Finney | 71c | 801.08$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Valentin | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Finney | 72c | 722$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Valentin | 14c | 626.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Finney | 74c | 608.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Valentin | 25c | 603$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Finney | 70c | 577.74$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.32 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Finney | 73c | 548.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…f72dbacked Valentin | 25c | 540$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…a4b9backed Valentin | 29c | 540$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…4f73backed Valentin | 29c | 540$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Finney | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Finney | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…49b2backed Finney | 76c | 394$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked Valentin | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…fce4backed Valentin | 29c | 360$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…3949backed Valentin | 29c | 360$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…5cc4backed Valentin | 29c | 360$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…7b0cbacked Valentin | 29c | 360$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Valentin | 29c | 348.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Valentin | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Finney | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Finney | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…90fdbacked Finney | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked Finney | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…865bbacked Finney | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Valentin | 25c | 260$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Valentin | 24c | 241.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Valentin | 25c | 239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…f7c2backed Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fb43backed Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…42ffbacked Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bee5backed Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…2842backed Finney | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Finney | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Valentin | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…ec62backed Finney | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Finney | 68c | 178.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Valentin | 32c | 178.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…45e9backed Finney | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…0e7abacked Finney | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…f555backed Finney | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +138%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…0338backed Finney | 75c | 145$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Finney | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Finney | 72c | 124$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Finney | 72c | 107.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Valentin | 25c | 105.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Valentin | 29c | 92.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Valentin | 12c | 88.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…ce04backed Finney | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8418…bb58backed Finney | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa193…cf8cbacked Valentin | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…f0d8backed Finney | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…08efbacked Finney | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Valentin | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Finney | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Finney | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed Finney | 73c | 67.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Valentin | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…5080backed Finney | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Valentin | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Valentin | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Valentin | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Finney | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d44…b15ebacked Finney | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Finney | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Finney | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Finney vs. Valentinthis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Sabatini vs. BritoSabatini won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.