UFC · resolved market
Sabatini vs. Brito
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022d8bcc994374e438855889b7fdb6ee5611c35e87368976feba77de0a31e8da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabatiniof Sabatini, Brito
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed Brito | 67c | 53,211$35,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,651.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…8921backed Sabatini | 33c | 53,211$17,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,651.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Sabatini | 35c | 10,407$3,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,776.35 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Brito | 65c | 8,500$5,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,525 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Brito | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Brito | 65c | 5,287$3,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,410.25 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sabatini | 36c | 4,902$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,128.79 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Sabatini | 63c | 3,125$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.62 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Brito | 64c | 2,146$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.44 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Sabatini | 35c | 2,062$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.34 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Brito | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Brito | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Brito | 67c | 1,102$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.32 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Brito | 11c | 1,006$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked Sabatini | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Brito | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Brito | 63c | 985.47$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.84 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Sabatini | 68c | 886.39$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.87 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Sabatini | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Sabatini | 37c | 795.82$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.82 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Sabatini | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Sabatini | 36c | 674.94$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Brito | 66c | 666$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.56 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Brito | 63c | 616.82$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Brito | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Sabatini | 34c | 576.31$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.87 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Brito | 63c | 545.35$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.28 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Brito | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Sabatini | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Brito | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.65 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Sabatini | 33c | 300.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…6b62backed Brito | 67c | 291.04$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7565…da11backed Sabatini | 35c | 287.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Brito | 56c | 260$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Brito | 62c | 259.82$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Brito | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Brito | 63c | 188.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Brito | 66c | 181$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Brito | 67c | 173.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa193…cf8cbacked Brito | 19c | 160.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Brito | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…49b2backed Brito | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Sabatini | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Sabatini | 35c | 142.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Sabatini | 35c | 134.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Brito | 66c | 114.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Brito | 63c | 105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Brito | 63c | 102.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Brito | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Brito | 66c | 97.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Brito | 64c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Sabatini | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Sabatini | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Brito | 67c | 74.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Sabatini | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Brito | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Sabatini | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sabatini | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Sabatini | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Sabatini | 36c | 39.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Brito | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…01a2backed Brito | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Brito | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…a216backed Brito | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed Brito | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Sabatini | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Sabatini | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0892backed Brito | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…92b2backed Brito | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…ca03backed Brito | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Sabatini | 70c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Sabatini | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Sabatini | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabatini vs. Britothis page
- Belbita vs. BarbosaBarbosa won
- Demopoulos vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Emmett vs. MurphyMurphy won
- Finney vs. ValentinFinney won
- Henry vs. FalcaoHenry won
- McKee vs. FrunzaMcKee won
- Osbourne vs. GuruleOsbourne won
- Romious vs. LeeLee won
- Tavares vs. MeerschaertTavares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.