TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,952 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x178d…43fcbacked Yes22c1,774$395 inWon+$1,379.271442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No78c1,208$938 inLost-$938.226069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No76c755.56$577 inLost-$577.341,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd94a…4786backed Yes36c274.79$100 inWon+$174.793946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No54c250$135 inLost-$1355,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Yes46c250$115 inWon+$1351,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f9…cfd8backed Yes24c205.58$49 inWon+$156.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba6…dd31backed Yes23c175.17$40 inWon+$135.17837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc32…ea58backed Yes28c142.86$40 inWon+$102.862035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No72c138.88$100 inLost-$99.9997049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No78c106.47$83 inLost-$82.7483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No77c104.53$81 inLost-$80.8792058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Yes24c83.33$20 inWon+$63.332835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No70c74.77$52 inLost-$52.3822774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No44c65.85$29 inLost-$28.971,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes25c56.31$14 inWon+$42.317640.8%31 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No77c56$43 inLost-$43.1295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No75c48.31$36 inLost-$36.234,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No77c40$31 inLost-$30.888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No76c36$27 inLost-$27.3632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No55c34.33$19 inLost-$18.8848751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c30$23 inLost-$23.41,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No75c20$15 inLost-$14.960267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No79c12.66$10 inLost-$1089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.