NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25dd42ddc8947049f5eec4abaa20406742dc90638b0e51bf3af60067d8fe90a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Lakers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,173 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Lakers | 46c | 7,648$3,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.32 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 53c | 6,370$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers | 54c | 3,143$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.06 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 55c | 2,797$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bulls | 51c | 2,688$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.84 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Bulls | 40c | 1,727$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.44 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…f1b3backed Bulls | 56c | 1,495$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 46c | 1,211$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.91 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Bulls | 55c | 1,130$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.63 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Bulls | 55c | 1,058$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.49 | 209 | 63.2%132 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…ecdabacked Lakers | 52c | 942.27$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Lakers | 44c | 834.59$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.22 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Lakers | 45c | 496.7$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Bulls | 56c | 475.85$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.85 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Lakers | 46c | 427$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers | 45c | 362.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…5e69backed Bulls | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bulls | 48c | 266.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Bulls | 52c | 181.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Lakers | 73c | 176.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lakers | 46c | 150.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Bulls | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Bulls | 23c | 137.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…8f23backed Lakers | 46c | 110.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Bulls | 54c | 109.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Lakers | 46c | 108.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lakers | 54c | 105.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac8…9e67backed Bulls | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Lakers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 382 | 61.5%235 W · 147 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Bulls | 27c | 97.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Bulls | 34c | 96.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Lakers | 54c | 91.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…123cbacked Bulls | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…9b4abacked Lakers | 50c | 80.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Bulls | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Lakers | 51c | 67.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Lakers | 46c | 54.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Lakers | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Lakers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…03b9backed Bulls | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Lakers | 48c | 47.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Bulls | 49c | 47.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Lakers | 49c | 45.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Bulls | 47c | 45.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Lakers | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Bulls | 54c | 44.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…99bebacked Lakers | 46c | 43.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Bulls | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Lakers | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Bulls | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Lakers | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7a…e989backed Bulls | 45c | 34.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lakers | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Bulls | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Bulls | 53c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Lakers | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bulls | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Bulls | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Lakers | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Lakers | 50c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Lakers | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -12.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Bulls won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Bulls won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Bulls vs. LakersLakers won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Guerschon Yabusele: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Lakers won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.