NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c2206738aaa48d7cbf6f5a2ac1ecaf16178bc7387adb4b5b32ef9c448f5160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 51c | 2,023$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.36 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Over | 72c | 1,408$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.22 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 1,091$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.6 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 47c | 787.5$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.13 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 27c | 574.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 29c | 476.09$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b654backed Over | 66c | 426.72$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Over | 67c | 383.61$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 44c | 359.73$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 308.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 32c | 277.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 263.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 254.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Under | 34c | 242.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 46c | 218.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Under | 37c | 188.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Under | 34c | 184.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Over | 70c | 143.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Over | 68c | 139.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 64c | 138.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Over | 68c | 137.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 56c | 107.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Over | 60c | 100.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…3e44backed Under | 33c | 99.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 33c | 99.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Under | 33c | 93.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 33c | 90.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 36c | 70.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Over | 69c | 53.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 39.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 38.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 33.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 39c | 32.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…9e0ebacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef5…1971backed Over | 72c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Bulls won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Bulls won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Bulls vs. LakersLakers won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Guerschon Yabusele: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)Bulls won
- Tre Jones: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.