TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Over56c10,966$6,141 inWon+$4,825.411,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Under44c9,010$3,965 inLost-$3,964.539842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under43c1,609$696 inLost-$696.044,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over54c1,074$579 inWon+$494.9345850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over56c947.99$531 inWon+$416.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under46c780.57$363 inLost-$362.564,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under43c571.63$247 inLost-$247.423348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under44c500$220 inLost-$2203,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Under44c450$198 inLost-$197.8618043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under46c434.78$200 inLost-$2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over66c410.26$271 inWon+$139.4916338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over53c387.04$205 inWon+$181.978,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over56c313.26$175 inWon+$137.8329055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Over57c283.55$161 inWon+$122.2121250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under45c230.1$103 inLost-$103.3937842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under34c228.63$78 inLost-$77.732,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost-$99.771,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c226.44$111 inLost-$110.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under46c222.03$102 inLost-$102.272,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Under45c221.44$99 inLost-$98.5520350.2%102 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under41c159.01$66 inLost-$65.811,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over57c129.1$74 inWon+$55.5380653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Over67c91.44$61 inWon+$30.187843.6%34 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Under35c66$23 inLost-$22.9821349.3%105 W · 108 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef49…1207backed Over57c52.72$30 inWon+$22.723046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa825…255ebacked Over57c52.72$30 inWon+$22.722661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over55c49.27$27 inWon+$22.1749351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over62c49$30 inWon+$18.621,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over59c45.24$27 inWon+$18.551,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Under45c44.34$20 inLost-$20.13138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under50c42.08$21 inLost-$211,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Over57c40.07$23 inWon+$17.2725651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under41c35.24$14 inLost-$14.452,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c33$15 inLost-$15.1846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over59c27.45$16 inWon+$11.371,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Over54c24.09$13 inWon+$11.0829351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Over63c23.97$15 inWon+$8.9712857.8%74 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Over51c20.61$11 inWon+$10.110951.4%56 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.