Will Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7322d3bc9a5220b2e376cc7a973c0620199b16af207be88455829f4cbb3a0e0

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $63,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,233 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes	11c	5,346$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed Yes	18c	4,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes	17c	3,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	178	33.7%60 W · 118 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Yes	18c	2,800$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked Yes	2c	1,999$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	3cpaid	+95.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	17c	1,500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	18c	1,465$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.71	1,146	42.8%490 W · 656 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes	17c	1,368$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.45	241	46.9%113 W · 128 L	+21.1wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes	18c	1,222$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-25%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Yes	7c	1,157$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No	80c	1,150$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.03	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes	18c	1,125$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.43	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1425backed Yes	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Yes	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	33cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Yes	8c	1,104$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.42	56	37.5%21 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb0…d24fbacked Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.9	414	37.9%157 W · 257 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e4…e4e3backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	18c	888$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.84	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes	14c	670$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.1	162	38.3%62 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	11c	600$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.4	233	25.8%60 W · 173 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	76	32.9%25 W · 51 L	-7.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes	17c	401.07$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.18	1,163	57.4%667 W · 496 L	+40.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x819f…70bcbacked Yes	18c	310$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c06…db24backed Yes	18c	305.5$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	270	24.8%67 W · 203 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ede…0a84backed Yes	18c	290$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-3.5wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes	20c	280$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	360	36.1%130 W · 230 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…7395backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48d6…46a6backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes	18c	270$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes	11c	255.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…e693backed Yes	10c	240.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-6.4wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-42%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb561…8612backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8159…ed58backed Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	150	25.3%38 W · 112 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…f90dbacked Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes	19c	164.98$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.35	123	24.4%30 W · 93 L	-9.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	150.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-8.1wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Yes	17c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+6.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x997e…2d1cbacked Yes	15c	131.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa60…d867backed Yes	19c	131.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…adadbacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	29.3%24 W · 58 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf808…6e99backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes	9c	113.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	307	39.4%121 W · 186 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…324dbacked Yes	18c	110$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes	10c	101.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	85	32.9%28 W · 57 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes	10c	101.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d32…fe50backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	118	28%33 W · 85 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	147	32%47 W · 100 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	159	55.3%88 W · 71 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7d…7a79backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a07…ce91backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…e502backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67cb…0569backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4b…7e6abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Yes	17c	99.88$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	92	30.4%28 W · 64 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes	15c	89.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	18c	83.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	232	20.7%48 W · 184 L	-12.5wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a9a…c2bfbacked Yes	18c	83.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Yes	20c	80.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes	18c	72.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24fb…a48ebacked Yes	19c	68.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?this page
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27?Yes won
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-27?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event