TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves47c6,103$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856.242,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed BetBoom Team51c5,748$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.0272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed 100 Thieves47c3,085$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.4411046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked 100 Thieves48c2,785$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34847147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked 100 Thieves48c2,526$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.2912038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed 100 Thieves38c2,334$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4742142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked BetBoom Team52c2,211$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.276048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed BetBoom Team55c2,200$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.9915249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed 100 Thieves47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x19f5…6092backed BetBoom Team53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed 100 Thieves49c1,996$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.3512359.3%73 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked 100 Thieves41c1,950$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.4632548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed BetBoom Team53c1,701$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.7787244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed BetBoom Team53c1,641$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.716761.7%103 W · 64 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e2…9a09backed BetBoom Team51c1,568$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.862060%12 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed BetBoom Team71c1,530$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.7613347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed 100 Thieves48c1,460$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.7511252.7%59 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed 100 Thieves47c1,348$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.366830.9%21 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed 100 Thieves46c1,339$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.822045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed BetBoom Team70c1,256$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.6412259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed BetBoom Team54c1,112$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.5950340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed 100 Thieves45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010651.9%55 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team60c1,108$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.34,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75fe…70eebacked BetBoom Team74c1,074$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves19c1,061$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.375,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa359…4387backed BetBoom Team53c1,008$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.92133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BetBoom Team50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50025555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed BetBoom Team54c997.27$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.2724944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed 100 Thieves47c923$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.3526251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed 100 Thieves50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45017758.2%103 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked 100 Thieves46c896.4$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4099753.6%52 W · 45 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked BetBoom Team56c889.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.113348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 100 Thieves43c835.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.461,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x851a…2e1bbacked BetBoom Team54c744.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 100 Thieves48c729.17$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed 100 Thieves47c724.99$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7761154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1429…9eb5backed BetBoom Team57c706.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.773050%15 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team60c700.94$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.247,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked BetBoom Team64c625.08$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.089561.1%58 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed 100 Thieves47c617.48$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6126155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed 100 Thieves49c614.45$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29924233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked 100 Thieves49c608.91$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6234943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed BetBoom Team52c595.6$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.894238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed 100 Thieves50c574.5$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2539851.3%204 W · 194 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 100 Thieves29c563.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.956,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0b…df4cbacked 100 Thieves40c526.61$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed 100 Thieves47c517.65$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0812638.9%49 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked BetBoom Team51c515$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.3517042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed BetBoom Team79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10522358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bff…267ebacked 100 Thieves37c497.08$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.984757.4%27 W · 20 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed BetBoom Team54c480$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1625634.4%88 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed 100 Thieves34c444.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15069635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf56d…9eeabacked BetBoom Team52c444$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1214853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked 100 Thieves12c439.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7648242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed BetBoom Team71c423.66$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6622952%119 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…227abacked BetBoom Team52c406.77$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.711573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked BetBoom Team50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20013540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed 100 Thieves42c395.83$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.75129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x49e5…4828backed BetBoom Team54c373.78$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 100 Thieves22c372.28$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8332930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb469…b49cbacked 100 Thieves50c369.22$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x286e…78b1backed BetBoom Team56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.14862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed 100 Thieves48c349.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.999138.5%35 W · 56 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed BetBoom Team51c312.04$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2517347.4%82 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…fc19backed BetBoom Team54c305.56$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5615561.3%95 W · 60 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 100 Thieves27c303.86$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.791,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed BetBoom Team54c301.13$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.318475%63 W · 21 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed 100 Thieves34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BetBoom Team53c290.91$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.735,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked BetBoom Team71c280.68$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9835550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed BetBoom Team61c280.27$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.846843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd572…5510backed 100 Thieves45c272.22$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.53554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked 100 Thieves29c270.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.763,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62e…8885backed BetBoom Team53c264.76$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed 100 Thieves23c256.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1631444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed 100 Thieves31c230.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4130527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0077…44a7backed 100 Thieves19c229.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.994537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked BetBoom Team53c225$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.751,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fbb…4db6backed BetBoom Team54c223.09$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc93…1489backed 100 Thieves13c209.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed 100 Thieves24c208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked 100 Thieves48c206.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x595b…c9d0backed 100 Thieves33c200.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.673857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed 100 Thieves49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9843933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed BetBoom Team52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9660853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8d…674fbacked 100 Thieves49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked BetBoom Team51c193.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.046145.9%28 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0097…9055backed BetBoom Team77c193.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.564185.4%35 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+27.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed BetBoom Team66c189$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.61450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac99…a35cbacked 100 Thieves48c188.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4925…a69abacked 100 Thieves46c186.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610331.1%32 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked BetBoom Team54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1958149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed 100 Thieves24c183.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.795034%17 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed 100 Thieves45c182.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8255738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked BetBoom Team56c177.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2245450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked BetBoom Team58c173.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4945162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed BetBoom Team69c173.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.39666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked 100 Thieves14c164.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.096841.2%28 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7266…a99fbacked BetBoom Team54c160.49$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.271540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed BetBoom Team66c152.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.49850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.