TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Invictus Gamingof Invictus Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$724,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$837,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $724,255 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x986b…bdc6backed Invictus Gaming74c60,147$44,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,619.791573.3%11 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Top Esports24c42,231$10,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,302.2585746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Top Esports32c41,451$13,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,378.3333456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Invictus Gaming75c29,438$22,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,393.531,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports25c26,066$6,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,513.051,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Top Esports20c18,888$3,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.61,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Invictus Gaming77c17,430$13,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,974.8740370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Top Esports10c14,806$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.6335431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01bf…070dbacked Top Esports17c14,770$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Top Esports18c14,164$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.1523547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Top Esports24c12,800$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.7421137.4%79 W · 132 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Top Esports19c12,579$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.481242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Top Esports21c12,053$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,531.1119146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Top Esports25c11,778$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.5130321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Top Esports28c10,152$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.446147.5%29 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Top Esports22c9,174$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.051,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Invictus Gaming75c8,614$6,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.7948742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7953…ed24backed Top Esports20c7,761$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.992611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-54.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7646…aff4backed Top Esports17c7,665$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Invictus Gaming59c7,480$4,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.5167552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Top Esports40c7,098$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.22958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Top Esports40c7,000$2,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,773.589341.9%39 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Top Esports19c7,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33012338.2%47 W · 76 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdacd…a083backed Invictus Gaming78c6,410$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.183855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0cc…478ebacked Invictus Gaming75c6,400$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba4…4afebacked Top Esports24c6,300$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.052222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Invictus Gaming77c6,268$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.4211653.4%62 W · 54 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Invictus Gaming73c6,057$4,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.126338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Top Esports21c5,952$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Top Esports20c5,732$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.0240232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Top Esports23c5,683$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.129927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Top Esports17c5,461$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.310535.2%37 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Top Esports27c5,185$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8292…f774backed Invictus Gaming75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25016238.9%63 W · 99 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Top Esports18c4,745$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010030%30 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Top Esports21c4,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94515545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0d…5d23backed Top Esports25c4,485$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Invictus Gaming78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8802548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Top Esports25c3,989$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00066947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Invictus Gaming76c3,921$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.054264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b00…20e1backed Invictus Gaming75c3,503$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.774158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Top Esports18c3,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52524529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Invictus Gaming75c2,959$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.837852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed Top Esports22c2,645$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.494746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4f…f290backed Top Esports44c2,538$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.75911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Invictus Gaming74c2,533$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.491546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Invictus Gaming64c2,510$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.813543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Top Esports41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0252128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Invictus Gaming60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.4428746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec02…3dd1backed Top Esports23c2,432$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56014049.3%69 W · 71 L-22.3wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-29%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Top Esports35c2,407$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Top Esports29c2,310$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.8978050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Invictus Gaming73c2,229$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.7924750.6%125 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Top Esports22c2,220$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49953139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Top Esports21c2,150$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.4946033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Invictus Gaming78c2,133$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.1859952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Invictus Gaming75c2,053$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.9732752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Invictus Gaming75c2,021$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.893138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Top Esports25c2,010$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.283542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…1957backed Invictus Gaming74c2,008$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Top Esports22c2,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4354131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Top Esports26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008047.5%38 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Top Esports21c1,910$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.074942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked Top Esports21c1,888$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.473231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Invictus Gaming75c1,872$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8932345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Top Esports27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Invictus Gaming76c1,847$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.5820249%99 W · 103 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…2e1fbacked Top Esports30c1,830$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.36347.6%30 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Top Esports35c1,646$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.9520764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Top Esports31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021939.3%86 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Invictus Gaming75c1,598$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.0485046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Top Esports31c1,573$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9622654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Top Esports23c1,516$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.866940.6%28 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x069d…0308backed Invictus Gaming79c1,500$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b9…b227backed Top Esports6c1,500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+85.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Invictus Gaming71c1,449$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.851,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Top Esports23c1,429$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6857947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Top Esports17c1,424$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7128458.5%166 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Top Esports22c1,424$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3220151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Top Esports29c1,388$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked Invictus Gaming75c1,329$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.133455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Top Esports19c1,300$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Top Esports27c1,300$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3462,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Top Esports25c1,280$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9752…5b36backed Top Esports20c1,260$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529267.4%62 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Invictus Gaming66c1,254$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.9323447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Top Esports23c1,242$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9121735.9%78 W · 139 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Top Esports23c1,217$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7425236.9%93 W · 159 L+1.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…82d6backed Top Esports25c1,214$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.451643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Top Esports4c1,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Top Esports22c1,140$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.823932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…c607backed Invictus Gaming75c1,131$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.66887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Top Esports21c1,117$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6317826.4%47 W · 131 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4daa…6920backed Top Esports14c1,080$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.215846.2%73 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Invictus Gaming78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.6458046.9%272 W · 308 L-2.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Invictus Gaming61c1,014$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.433850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Invictus Gaming79c1,007$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.450242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Invictus Gaming56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.292250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Top Esports21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21014852%77 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Top Esports21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.