TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof KT Rolster, DN SOOPers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked DN SOOPers41c39,999$16,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,399.796048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked KT Rolster59c16,532$9,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,778.28951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DN SOOPers41c13,559$5,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,581.411,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed KT Rolster58c13,383$7,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,661.9418447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked KT Rolster59c11,772$6,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,826.6221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked KT Rolster59c9,965$5,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,113.5266437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed DN SOOPers42c9,958$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,182.4611249.1%55 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed KT Rolster58c7,388$4,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.9638235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked KT Rolster60c6,459$3,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.076540%26 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN SOOPers39c5,917$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.122,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster58c5,007$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.9757246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed DN SOOPers42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9921144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DN SOOPers40c4,090$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.011,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked DN SOOPers40c3,972$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.170456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x112a…b731backed KT Rolster59c3,024$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.731546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed KT Rolster60c2,710$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.0151044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed DN SOOPers42c2,413$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.4654353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked KT Rolster57c2,149$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.0879653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed DN SOOPers42c1,834$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.236741.8%28 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed KT Rolster59c1,733$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.651,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed DN SOOPers41c1,510$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.6915543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed DN SOOPers41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.981,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x955c…ce96backed DN SOOPers42c1,404$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.624641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN SOOPers42c1,369$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed KT Rolster66c1,351$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.3617561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed DN SOOPers43c1,087$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.1344042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed DN SOOPers42c1,072$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.3130050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed KT Rolster59c1,044$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed DN SOOPers43c1,008$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2614336.4%52 W · 91 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed KT Rolster59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41021154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed DN SOOPers42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KT Rolster58c887.97$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.391,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed KT Rolster59c826.61$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.916553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked KT Rolster58c823.13$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.722343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked DN SOOPers39c817.4$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.461,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed KT Rolster58c800$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33676953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed KT Rolster59c718.62$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.9616346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked DN SOOPers42c705.52$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.329952.5%52 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked DN SOOPers42c689.43$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5626155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed KT Rolster59c661.29$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1312844.5%57 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed KT Rolster59c578.63$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.242665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed KT Rolster59c577.45$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8496250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked KT Rolster59c502.32$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.146650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked KT Rolster57c499.98$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9917431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked KT Rolster59c495.97$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3556744.8%254 W · 313 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe891…e3ddbacked KT Rolster62c480.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.6412660.3%76 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed KT Rolster61c480.3$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3216346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked KT Rolster59c479.9$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.766352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed KT Rolster58c448.42$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3439447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed KT Rolster59c435.13$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.411645.7%53 W · 63 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed KT Rolster59c426.53$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.8848852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed KT Rolster59c413.31$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4643640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked KT Rolster61c380.39$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3590537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c8…86b4backed DN SOOPers43c377.34$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2519157.1%109 W · 82 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked KT Rolster58c357.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3511245.5%51 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked DN SOOPers42c354.07$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7118653.2%99 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked KT Rolster59c331.64$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9740752.3%213 W · 194 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed KT Rolster59c331.36$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2928652.8%151 W · 135 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3918…b552backed KT Rolster59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.565834.5%20 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+82.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked KT Rolster59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5684360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked DN SOOPers39c304.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.282044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked KT Rolster57c292.96$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9712861.7%79 W · 49 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1311…8dccbacked DN SOOPers42c255.72$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.444528.9%13 W · 32 L-7.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked KT Rolster59c246.33$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1019738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x64d9…4bb0backed DN SOOPers42c231.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.296953.6%37 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed DN SOOPers42c229.72$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4874344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed DN SOOPers43c224.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.581,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed DN SOOPers42c222.82$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9919941.7%83 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed KT Rolster59c204.83$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9813537%50 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked DN SOOPers44c195.59$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875745.6%26 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed KT Rolster59c175.79$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.077548%36 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed KT Rolster60c174.63$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.216852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed KT Rolster56c172.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4539266.6%261 W · 131 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked DN SOOPers33c172.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.831,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…15ddbacked KT Rolster61c167.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef74…700fbacked DN SOOPers42c165.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked KT Rolster59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7816851.2%86 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked KT Rolster59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7850956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6d…804bbacked KT Rolster59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7816647%78 W · 88 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed KT Rolster59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7818849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f6…0650backed KT Rolster59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7813651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed KT Rolster60c162.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3918752.4%98 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7820…0b73backed KT Rolster59c154.08$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1712341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed KT Rolster59c152.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.449643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…b30ebacked KT Rolster59c151.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.113948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed KT Rolster80c151.45$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7665063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked KT Rolster59c146.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9940546.2%187 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed4e…916fbacked DN SOOPers43c145.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7816654.2%90 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked KT Rolster59c145.77$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7738850.8%197 W · 191 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…3cc3backed DN SOOPers42c142.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8511436.8%42 W · 72 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed KT Rolster58c140.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.962466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+50.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c36…08f5backed DN SOOPers42c139.24$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4815635.9%56 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed KT Rolster59c136.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.997944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x800b…ee91backed KT Rolster58c136.47$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.328949.4%44 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fc4…d48cbacked DN SOOPers42c135.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.127540.4%111 W · 164 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed KT Rolster58c135.28$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8460849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed DN SOOPers18c133.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0935054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed DN SOOPers42c133.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.985954.2%32 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840d…ac96backed DN SOOPers42c133.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.981656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad0…31e6backed KT Rolster59c128.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.871855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.