TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers65c9,461$6,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,139.796,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees42c6,428$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,728.54,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees27c5,125$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,744.158,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New York Yankees42c4,800$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.961,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees26c4,687$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.898,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Texas Rangers60c4,167$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005450%27 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees38c4,080$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.7110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed New York Yankees29c4,059$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.372,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers59c3,808$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.821,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Texas Rangers58c3,559$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.3750553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Texas Rangers59c2,463$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.9877951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Texas Rangers63c2,186$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.9959549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees39c2,120$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.0412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed New York Yankees37c1,941$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.74143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked New York Yankees41c1,829$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.2726545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Texas Rangers45c1,667$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers58c1,605$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.46,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked New York Yankees43c1,500$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9875248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers59c1,288$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.235,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees48c1,206$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6273,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Texas Rangers67c1,180$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.61,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed New York Yankees43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.795149%25 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Texas Rangers57c1,153$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.2192554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed New York Yankees41c999.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.9955052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked New York Yankees18c999$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.1810237.3%38 W · 64 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees42c871$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.851,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers51c836.66$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Texas Rangers57c831.13$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.7488349.3%435 W · 448 L-4.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers58c811.25$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.411,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Texas Rangers58c746.19$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.791,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers68c735.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed New York Yankees42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2929331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Yankees40c695$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4171,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Texas Rangers68c661.76$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.772,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Texas Rangers57c624.96$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.235339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Texas Rangers57c608.04$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0749358.8%290 W · 203 L+30.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed New York Yankees31c539.22$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.889037.8%34 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed New York Yankees43c525$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.2517652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.011,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Texas Rangers59c471.77$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27960%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked New York Yankees43c446.88$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.6370154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc388…7af1backed New York Yankees43c437.39$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.571442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb37…7d86backed Texas Rangers69c434.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006647%31 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Texas Rangers71c430.38$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.661,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Texas Rangers59c428.67$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.911,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees52c420.69$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.561,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x82c1…c2c6backed Texas Rangers57c411.26$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.421662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23260350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Texas Rangers49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19671044.5%316 W · 394 L-23.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6672…9ea3backed New York Yankees41c396.3$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.425143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees43c392.91$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.112,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Yankees41c378.25$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.041,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers40c322.52$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.62,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees37c301.63$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.711,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa928…bbaabacked New York Yankees56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1323857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed New York Yankees42c274$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.2836440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Texas Rangers57c262.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7728154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed New York Yankees42c261$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees31c257.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.822,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed New York Yankees41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.956946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Texas Rangers59c235.79$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1248150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers59c218.8$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.068,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed New York Yankees32c218.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.9999744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef2…fdb6backed Texas Rangers59c216.87$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.951323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers75c202.79$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.375,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Texas Rangers59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11828850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Texas Rangers64c164.79$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6737143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cf…e4a2backed New York Yankees44c159.09$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.097450%37 W · 37 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed Texas Rangers58c155.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees40c154.89$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.335,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Texas Rangers70c151.28$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.31,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Texas Rangers64c148.42$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9944744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed New York Yankees50c139.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8494648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Yankees45c135.38$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.811,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees43c121$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4372154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees45c120.05$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.591,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees39c107.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.13,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees44c105.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.61,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees34c103.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.813,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers51c103.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Texas Rangers59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605354.7%29 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed New York Yankees42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5868942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Texas Rangers60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6048150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Texas Rangers66c93.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8115037.3%56 W · 94 L-15.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6176…b18bbacked New York Yankees41c87.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6477…4243backed New York Yankees52c86.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.541735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees35c85.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.56,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Texas Rangers60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Texas Rangers55c82.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.587252.8%38 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ac…16cdbacked New York Yankees61c82.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Texas Rangers43c82.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631,92817.2%331 W · 1,597 L-320.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed New York Yankees55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.439344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c20…42a1backed Texas Rangers57c78.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456451.6%33 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed New York Yankees46c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.545650.4%230 W · 226 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked New York Yankees38c74.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9526854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9497…556fbacked New York Yankees41c73.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.111250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked New York Yankees28c72.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3667742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed New York Yankees29c71.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.779549.5%47 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Texas Rangers59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.32445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed New York Yankees44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.181450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.