TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$594,695
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$643,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,695 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 437 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked G2 Esports76c80,473$61,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,196.121,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked FURIA Esports23c42,399$9,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,550.0125244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3239…8da3backed FURIA Esports23c32,880$7,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,591.275442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked G2 Esports79c28,044$22,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,810.747440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed FURIA Esports17c26,679$4,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,535.451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed FURIA Esports23c22,222$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,111.061,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed FURIA Esports19c19,219$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.6532150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked FURIA Esports19c16,183$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.9217555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked FURIA Esports20c13,700$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.6220546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed G2 Esports79c12,554$9,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.931,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked FURIA Esports18c12,178$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.4625453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked G2 Esports79c12,127$9,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.741,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed FURIA Esports22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20027637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed FURIA Esports20c9,250$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.994060%24 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked FURIA Esports22c8,870$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.7612754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FURIA Esports19c8,762$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.7648149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed FURIA Esports19c7,789$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5181,30138.6%502 W · 799 L-65.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked G2 Esports78c7,777$6,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.931,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed FURIA Esports22c7,558$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.7612226.2%32 W · 90 L-11.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked G2 Esports79c6,681$5,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.0263344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed FURIA Esports7c6,397$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.7811438.6%44 W · 70 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed G2 Esports80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20010839.8%43 W · 65 L-12.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a94…8f9dbacked FURIA Esports24c5,242$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Esports78c5,060$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.871,20643.5%525 W · 681 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4840…41f3backed FURIA Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50623.2%2 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G2 Esports79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05096250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b05…3455backed FURIA Esports19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.996450%32 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dfc…1818backed FURIA Esports24c4,639$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5384…0339backed FURIA Esports21c4,547$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed FURIA Esports19c4,528$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.9685836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked FURIA Esports21c4,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9455429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FURIA Esports22c4,407$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.5438235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed FURIA Esports13c4,189$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.294450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed G2 Esports80c4,130$3,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82646050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked FURIA Esports22c3,768$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.963046.7%14 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FURIA Esports21c3,750$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.211,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked FURIA Esports20c3,666$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.3532442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed FURIA Esports21c3,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73532234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed G2 Esports80c3,500$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FURIA Esports19c3,387$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5737245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed FURIA Esports18c3,250$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.532045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed FURIA Esports28c3,237$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.1221049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed FURIA Esports20c3,207$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.3864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed FURIA Esports19c3,077$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.5912236.9%45 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed FURIA Esports10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed FURIA Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed G2 Esports69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.996663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb92…b221backed FURIA Esports21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.995442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed G2 Esports68c2,950$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.0960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked G2 Esports80c2,845$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.152065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked FURIA Esports23c2,609$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed G2 Esports78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.19761.9%60 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports77c2,542$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.688950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed FURIA Esports20c2,526$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006529.2%19 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FURIA Esports21c2,271$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.061,81839.9%726 W · 1,092 L-59.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked FURIA Esports20c2,245$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44937640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed FURIA Esports19c2,205$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9532839.6%130 W · 198 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports79c2,114$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.392,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed FURIA Esports20c2,083$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5310346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed FURIA Esports22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed FURIA Esports18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36052747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed FURIA Esports20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked G2 Esports76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed FURIA Esports21c2,000$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.9914936.9%55 W · 94 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked FURIA Esports21c1,871$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.931650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d2…eec6backed FURIA Esports22c1,850$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports21c1,800$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.262151.4%319 W · 302 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ebd…b66abacked FURIA Esports23c1,780$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.34564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports23c1,770$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.42,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed FURIA Esports18c1,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked FURIA Esports18c1,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070857.1%404 W · 304 L+41.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca2…44fcbacked FURIA Esports20c1,617$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.442010%2 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports19c1,600$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed FURIA Esports18c1,558$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4137957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed G2 Esports70c1,556$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.7916845.2%76 W · 92 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa008…c053backed FURIA Esports22c1,550$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed FURIA Esports28c1,532$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.518162.4%113 W · 68 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd0e1…b01bbacked G2 Esports78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3309655.2%53 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports23c1,467$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.322,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FURIA Esports20c1,394$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.691,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FURIA Esports18c1,389$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FURIA Esports23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked G2 Esports79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8235353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked G2 Esports79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8215443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed G2 Esports80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25014753.1%78 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FURIA Esports20c1,215$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9384949.4%419 W · 430 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked FURIA Esports2c1,211$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2245937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x619a…036abacked G2 Esports80c1,209$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.725658.9%33 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed G2 Esports79c1,200$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25834448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA Esports20c1,149$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.432,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed G2 Esports79c1,114$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.929253.3%49 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed FURIA Esports18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031050%155 W · 155 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1462…6d8dbacked FURIA Esports22c1,110$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed G2 Esports80c1,107$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.131,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed G2 Esports80c1,010$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2029259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed G2 Esports79c1,001$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2125242.5%107 W · 145 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed FURIA Esports23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked FURIA Esports22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed G2 Esports80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked FURIA Esports20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.