TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$294,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,357 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex32c39,835$12,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,935.2554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Liquid67c26,582$17,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,809.9528748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Liquid67c19,875$13,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,315.7911547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Team Yandex56c10,395$5,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,610.553336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Yandex31c10,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,849.8218452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Liquid72c9,181$6,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,631.983435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Team Liquid69c8,888$6,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,132.726852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Team Yandex31c8,070$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,568.39657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Yandex31c6,200$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.8813441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Team Yandex33c5,515$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.772722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid58c4,840$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex47c4,697$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.352,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Yandex40c4,474$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.5912156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Team Yandex33c4,444$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,977.481735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid69c4,377$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.1736041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Yandex55c3,664$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.4855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…3becbacked Team Yandex58c3,632$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.141181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+56.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Yandex33c3,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3454143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Yandex57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.9714648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Yandex33c3,221$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Yandex33c3,150$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.3114515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Liquid56c3,089$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.087950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Liquid69c2,945$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.8111346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Team Liquid68c2,939$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.871020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-58.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Liquid69c2,923$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.676349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf0…9bf5backed Team Yandex35c2,891$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid36c2,676$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.021,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid57c2,500$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41723050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Yandex32c2,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Yandex59c2,460$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.0348539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Team Yandex57c2,400$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.999257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Yandex56c2,391$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.9211854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Team Liquid68c2,368$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.041450%7 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Yandex33c2,341$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.9460542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Liquid70c2,325$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.963658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Team Liquid67c2,261$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.853740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Yandex33c2,200$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.9934544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Team Liquid46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9925457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Liquid70c2,167$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51729160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a8…9579backed Team Yandex55c2,105$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.61040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Team Liquid45c2,032$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.1915650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Liquid51c1,946$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab2e…2014backed Team Liquid67c1,868$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.211020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Team Liquid70c1,836$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.169650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid34c1,677$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.871,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Team Liquid68c1,635$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.8314058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Team Liquid68c1,618$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.463551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3999…c2bbbacked Team Liquid4c1,587$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.55453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Liquid67c1,532$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.246650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Liquid70c1,500$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.7729047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…d057backed Team Liquid49c1,424$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.37642.1%32 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Yandex52c1,350$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Liquid70c1,240$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.4228062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515c…fd9abacked Team Yandex55c1,214$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Team Liquid68c1,178$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.138739.1%34 W · 53 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b4…3500backed Team Liquid69c1,124$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.762040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Team Yandex29c1,071$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.177830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Team Liquid44c1,062$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.368950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex65c1,041$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff2…c7c9backed Team Liquid69c1,034$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7123070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Team Yandex33c1,014$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.459946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Yandex32c1,000$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.9419742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Yandex31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69020642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team Yandex32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68022727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Yandex32c969.82$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.4864744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a63…9664backed Team Yandex33c910.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+84.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf41…bfd4backed Team Liquid57c899.99$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5111758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17c3…c6a7backed Team Liquid68c882.34$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Team Liquid66c870.43$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.481752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Team Yandex36c861.05$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.626160.7%37 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…95edbacked Team Yandex33c854.55$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca5e…4af1backed Team Liquid67c850$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.51040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid35c840$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2939430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Yandex33c800$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53669835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid42c749.99$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Liquid13c744.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Liquid64c742.67$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.7971342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Team Yandex32c737.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.832352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Liquid68c735.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Team Liquid41c731.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Team Liquid71c717.92$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.35158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Team Yandex33c702$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.341040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Liquid44c674.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Team Liquid45c668.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007252.8%38 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Team Liquid43c665.12$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28615147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex31c645.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.6129245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Yandex58c632.76$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.7615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630f…50e6backed Team Liquid69c626.09$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Yandex32c625.02$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.859045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Liquid20c619.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Team Liquid69c614$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.962853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Team Liquid24c584.06$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.958213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Liquid70c571.15$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.257455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f05…fa4bbacked Team Yandex41c549.59$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.83977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+54.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Yandex37c543.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.180742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b8…e420backed Team Liquid68c514.71$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked Team Yandex35c513$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.1911753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Yandex30c505.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.6123746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.