TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$418,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,156 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex33c51,169$16,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,345.0454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Liquid68c16,919$11,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,503.4611854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Yandex34c15,000$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,839.8142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid54c13,528$7,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,347.855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid65c13,038$8,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,417.5632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Liquid58c11,953$6,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,99253451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Yandex45c10,462$4,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,753.9612156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex41c8,766$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,186.342,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Team Liquid38c8,398$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,166.993762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid60c8,247$4,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,948.4136041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Yandex34c8,000$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.2710445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Liquid64c7,791$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.1228748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid65c7,171$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,68396357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Yandex51c6,421$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.0520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Yandex47c6,411$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.8971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Team Yandex40c6,295$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.448845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex47c5,876$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,117.1651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Liquid14c5,374$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.2827637.3%103 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Liquid74c5,337$3,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,966.1618661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid63c5,130$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.241,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Yandex50c4,337$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.8573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Liquid68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72032951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid67c4,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.9579559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Yandex75c3,461$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.5118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex33c3,344$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.135758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked Team Yandex69c3,231$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.6411753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Liquid3c3,076$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0213020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Yandex56c2,980$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.841042.4%174 W · 236 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex44c2,909$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.3666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Team Liquid70c2,855$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Liquid71c2,796$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.543435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid68c2,700$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.618362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bb…f420backed Team Liquid39c2,497$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.491030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Team Liquid53c2,042$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.68749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex42c2,001$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.112,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Team Yandex36c2,000$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.811960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Team Liquid67c1,939$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.314768.1%32 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Team Liquid1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Team Yandex33c1,694$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.669447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Yandex62c1,671$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.4138049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Team Liquid61c1,643$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.2915653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Liquid22c1,632$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2548954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid66c1,567$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03320156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Team Liquid64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked Team Liquid67c1,502$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Team Liquid63c1,500$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.999257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Team Liquid63c1,442$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.0810456.7%59 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Liquid67c1,344$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6653652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Yandex27c1,300$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.8931245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid64c1,079$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.8155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Yandex37c1,074$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.8645046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Yandex39c1,068$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.0117353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Team Liquid68c1,060$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.831233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Yandex44c1,047$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.3933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Liquid36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36013027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5614…b9fbbacked Team Yandex32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6802920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Yandex34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Yandex45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex38c999.99$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.9939660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex32c992.78$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.8750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Liquid47c935.21$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.2738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Team Yandex38c900$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.6411331.9%36 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5395…687abacked Team Liquid63c834.55$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.32254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Team Yandex39c816.41$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Team Liquid53c797.86$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42110141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Team Liquid64c780.59$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.589959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Yandex32c761.94$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.7516248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Team Liquid71c705.71$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8614965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Liquid67c700$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46933549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Yandex29c689.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Team Liquid74c676.43$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Team Liquid61c675$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.137830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Team Liquid51c666$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.026150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Yandex60c652.23$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.9328549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Team Yandex30c633.56$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.498425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Yandex43c623.85$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7331736%114 W · 203 L-18.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Team Yandex69c613.39$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf257…ba86backed Team Yandex66c603.07$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.072157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e32…6e95backed Team Liquid4c585.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.124717%8 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Yandex34c569.26$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.7129548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex56c556$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.4160552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid55c540$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.89430.9%29 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Yandex37c524.5$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.7277258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a43…38f8backed Team Yandex38c509.98$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Yandex38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31036054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Team Yandex64c482.46$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.935158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e5…9f6dbacked Team Liquid71c465.67$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.191258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Yandex65c459.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6412948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Yandex46c450$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Team Yandex36c435.44$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.512466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed Team Yandex46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.784841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…08a4backed Team Yandex42c427.09$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.093650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid58c409.31$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.751,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Team Yandex37c404.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8313138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Liquid75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Team Liquid62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2488726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2570…9fe2backed Team Liquid44c400$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.562254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+57.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2109…55bfbacked Team Liquid62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2482962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Yandex25c398.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.5246049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid64c383.39$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.991,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.