TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x605e…a849

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
16
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tennis, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 52 out of 100; worst College Football at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.77
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.24
Heat vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$677Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$676.5
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
All 5 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$26.95
KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. Ak Bars Kazanbacked SKA St. Petersburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+100%+$45
Ducks vs. Penguinsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+112.8%+$63.6
Lightning vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$40.8
All 4 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maryland Terrapins vs. UCLAbacked Maryland Terrapins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southernbacked Georgia State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$279
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Rafael Jodarbacked Kjaer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+122.2%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$48.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. North Dakota State Bisonbacked North Dakota State Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+104.1%+$102
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 1)backed India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.