World Politics · resolved market
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007aa0430cbc24e2a8b39a59dfa5f2d321053d667bf01aa2801c9ba48ea80326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed Yes | 80c | 1,447$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.54 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 73c | 1,441$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.58 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 1,081$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 815$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 21c | 806.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.74 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 12c | 761.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 9c | 630$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked No | 29c | 629.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 70c | 622.83$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.33 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…4d5fbacked Yes | 80c | 431.29$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked No | 16c | 382.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…3179backed No | 21c | 317.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…93c4backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…f2b4backed No | 24c | 268.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…5d79backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 246.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6eb…6174backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 76c | 194.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 177.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 169.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked No | 16c | 142.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 16c | 140.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 11c | 130.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…d5a6backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 77c | 120.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 113.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 19c | 53.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 20c | 50.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…bbfbbacked Yes | 75c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…0dfbbacked Yes | 71c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?this page
- Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.