TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Jazzof Warriors, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeef3…0547backed Jazz50c170$85 inWon+$8525550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6528…2dcebacked Warriors66c149.39$99 inLost-$98.67766.2%51 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c40…cd62backed Warriors66c104$68 inLost-$68.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Jazz58c100.04$58 inWon+$42.1626353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz34c100$34 inWon+$663,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors61c99.35$61 inLost-$60.62,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors48c97.97$47 inLost-$46.975,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Jazz39c97.44$38 inWon+$59.443740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Warriors49c88.84$43 inLost-$43.426746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cc…021dbacked Warriors51c80$41 inLost-$40.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Jazz45c57.5$26 inWon+$31.4845445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ea…18e7backed Warriors37c48.17$18 inLost-$181050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Jazz34c44$15 inWon+$29.0462049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Jazz34c43.99$15 inWon+$29.0432747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb682…2d79backed Jazz39c38.46$15 inWon+$23.466157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Warriors57c35.12$20 inLost-$2013744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc59f…f632backed Warriors66c22.95$15 inLost-$15.153357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24dd…86c4backed Warriors61c19.75$12 inLost-$11.99850%4 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.