NBA · resolved market
Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726de859bf82c3aa9a62fdda3bc2d7f6fe323b80a5e9f99811f93424273bf646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,758 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 54c | 10,000$5,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,398.44 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 46c | 4,727$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.39 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 46c | 4,567$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.18 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 74c | 1,070$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…c87cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,035$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 76c | 609.67$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 76c | 510$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 46c | 431.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.42 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 73c | 377.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Yes | 54c | 354.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4f…37b9backed Yes | 22c | 338.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 46c | 288$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 27c | 272.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…f513backed Yes | 29c | 225.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…c4b8backed Yes | 23c | 212.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked No | 46c | 195.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…563fbacked Yes | 22c | 183.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Yes | 42c | 167.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…c55abacked No | 78c | 160.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 22c | 145$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…fb47backed Yes | 25c | 118.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 75c | 79.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 23c | 64.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 26c | 62.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 49c | 48.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…ea64backed Yes | 27c | 43.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db1…ae9ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 29.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 77c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Jazz won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Jazz won
- Warriors vs. JazzJazz won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.