NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x661a095a369a65c6e87833138dafc7f28b26071f7621c42b980733b7b41dc079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 52c | 1,925$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,573$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.24 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 842.16$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 57c | 550.29$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.66 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 497.05$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 348.01$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 333.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 318$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 58c | 317.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked Over | 41c | 292.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 259.7$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 37c | 235.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 215.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Under | 56c | 179.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 143.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 140.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 132.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 58c | 116.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 59c | 116.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 59c | 108.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 39c | 84.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3de…7240backed Over | 60c | 84.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 61c | 83.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Under | 59c | 67.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 57.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 25c | 56.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 64c | 39.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 63c | 38.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Over | 40c | 37.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 37c | 35.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 43c | 34.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…aaa0backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 28.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 43c | 27.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Under | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6816backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…9d94backed Under | 44c | 23.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked Over | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Jazz won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Jazz won
- Warriors vs. JazzJazz won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.