Earnings · resolved market
Will TPG (TPG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0420d4ad423e8f87d86521a92111f5c209e80e65dc8d9f46534c590fc18d85db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 59c | 8,075$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,336.21 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,835$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.56 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,681$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,728$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 7c | 2,283$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 38c | 2,036$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 51c | 1,357$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +215.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,219$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,018$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 12c | 959.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 21c | 941.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 21c | 930$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 12c | 900$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 17c | 597.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 14c | 565$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 450.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 16c | 372.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 332.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed Yes | 18c | 328.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 300$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…d704backed Yes | 14c | 271.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…0454backed Yes | 18c | 271.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 255.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 23c | 247.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 14c | 224.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 211.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 185$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 15c | 130.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed Yes | 19c | 115.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 20c | 111.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…d8d5backed Yes | 18c | 109.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +180%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…987abacked Yes | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…afbebacked Yes | 22c | 59.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 68c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…752abacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…c75cbacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.