Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a3de96bc7559a6bb823d929d2e18f90113487b05a4dbe9f06efc984a4c821b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $514,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $468,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $514,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 40,803$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.32 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 38,501$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 19,187$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.87 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 16,848$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.87 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 0c | 12,998$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,841$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.98 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…c178backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 10,833$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.28 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 8,943$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.05 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 4c | 8,797$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…4710backed Yes | 6c | 8,572$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,730$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.23 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 9c | 7,072$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.23 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 7c | 5,415$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 3c | 4,526$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 9c | 4,218$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b0…fe6cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,141$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 3,642$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,570$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 5c | 3,550$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c53…0fa5backed Yes | 3c | 3,151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 20c | 3,114$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.48 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…ebdbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 11c | 2,669$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.57 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 7c | 2,409$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…5152backed Yes | 17c | 2,313$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34e…919fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,048$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…e8ffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,917$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 1,277$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,151$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 7c | 1,140$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…8b84backed Yes | 5c | 1,139$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,129$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 14c | 1,087$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 960$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 12c | 927.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 920$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 905.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…0340backed Yes | 16c | 876.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 15c | 821.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 2c | 813.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…383dbacked Yes | 6c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 793.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 620.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 14c | 612.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 606$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…6a8abacked Yes | 15c | 531.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 456.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 6c | 449$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…f2a3backed Yes | 6c | 447.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed Yes | 13c | 404$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 11c | 385.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 304.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 14c | 267.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 25c | 247.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 21c | 239.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 205.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…b0cfbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 11c | 175.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…5fe8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.