TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under62c24,338$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,338.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Over40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over18c3,799$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Over44c3,430$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over39c2,932$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.7887344.3%387 W · 486 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under56c2,796$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.631952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over44c2,657$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.5610145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over40c2,393$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.231637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over38c2,206$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.984742.6%20 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9952550.1%263 W · 262 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over36c1,798$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.385547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under56c1,494$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.955763.2%36 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under78c1,311$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.3622745.8%104 W · 123 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf00e…00f4backed Over41c1,196$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.45per pick59cpaid-81.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x61dd…bb24backed Over13c1,186$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under56c1,118$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.7318351.4%94 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc936…c08abacked Over45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over39c1,100$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.833336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under75c1,067$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5108250%41 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407227.8%20 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over37c946$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.029553.7%51 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over37c840$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.827049.6%134 W · 136 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over35c839.63$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2961225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under55c811.82$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.312963.6%82 W · 47 L+12.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4871…0742backed Over25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed Under78c672.46$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.94757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over46c666.89$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Over7c615.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8266…e882backed Over40c587.12$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd881…af24backed Under56c579.81$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over46c574.93$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.972454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under58c565.09$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.344050%20 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+110.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under60c530.08$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7736…c991backed Over48c522.54$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under63c506.95$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1224349.4%120 W · 123 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over38c485.74$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0427748.7%135 W · 142 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Over46c485.13$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.161250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Over45c404.56$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x71a8…22f0backed Over45c402.62$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a1…8e53backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d06…755bbacked Under61c390.74$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over43c390.29$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.122250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…f419backed Under56c351.79$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed Over15c350.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb15c…604abacked Under56c345.16$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8bd…d868backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Over39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Over50c270$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x850b…5493backed Over37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce0f…07a3backed Under56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over37c241$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.246450.4%234 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over45c233.48$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…0665backed Over9c230$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over42c205.92$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d74…0324backed Under59c203.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Under51c189.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.73658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed Over45c180$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over43c179.76$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.794955.1%27 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over24c175$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over43c173.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under56c160.71$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.712050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over44c150.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.395435.2%19 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under62c147.26$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7533145%149 W · 182 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b6…43d6backed Under60c141.03$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf45…ea2cbacked Under51c128.25$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Under50c116.56$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over45c114$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4186…7513backed Over44c113.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…2cacbacked Over45c111.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…5590backed Over45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Under51c105.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4571…a952backed Under57c103.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Over44c101.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.651338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365644.6%25 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…b1eebacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29d3…ccf6backed Over50c97.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96d…1a5bbacked Under51c88.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d8…d8a7backed Over27c85.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.752263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under63c83.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.859558.9%56 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over26c81.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Over25c80.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over41c75.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Under56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b53…95c4backed Over40c67.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under56c62.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.543764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.83050%15 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over40c59.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Under50c58.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.12138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa23b…6d59backed Under78c55.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7c…a489backed Over45c49.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.