Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $140 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05db96404597394d1c5b04fc4fa41abc81258f24446191713ab8afc2e53ad35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 7c | 43,383$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.68 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,335$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.19 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,460$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.96 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 9c | 5,443$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.59 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,411$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 24c | 4,530$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 63c | 4,500$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 5c | 3,099$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,252$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 28c | 1,608$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.5 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d0…b3d2backed Yes | 17c | 1,581$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…ea9abacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 53c | 995.43$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.51 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 10c | 860.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 638.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 68c | 560.13$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…214abacked Yes | 47c | 535.85$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…b36abacked Yes | 5c | 520$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -86%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 57c | 440.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.27 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…d373backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…0a74backed Yes | 47c | 226.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…091bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…dc59backed Yes | 16c | 197.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…0625backed Yes | 11c | 177.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…0644backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…927ebacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…d3bcbacked Yes | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…6efbbacked No | 76c | 45.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 70c | 39.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1056backed Yes | 39c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…41febacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…2fc1backed No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…c572backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $140 in August?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 in August?No won
- Will Solana dip to $130 in August?No won
- Will Solana dip to $145 in August?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in August?No won
- Will Solana dip to $155 in August?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $165 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $175 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $180 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $185 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $190 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $195 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $200 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 in August?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $220 in August?No won
- Will Solana reach $230 in August?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in August?No won
- Will Solana reach $290 in August?No won
- Will Solana reach $340 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.