Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0718179a2dc07f5e071125a45aaa1594679f72731e7a4e47ca60ac2b3b09b5e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 252.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 33c | 246.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 176.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 160.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 151.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 151.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 138.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 136.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed No | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 45c | 129.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 119.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 115.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 114.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 106.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 102.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 101.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 98.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 28c | 92.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 85.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 63c | 75.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 74.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 32c | 69.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 69.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 69.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 50.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…717bbacked No | 46c | 45.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 44.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 44.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 34c | 44.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 44.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 31c | 40.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 38.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 38c | 34.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 30.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 41c | 30.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 28.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 59c | 28.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 25.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1d04backed No | 68c | 22.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 59c | 17.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed No | 60c | 17.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.