TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0d8…59f5backed Yes46c4,226$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes43c575.53$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c434.33$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes46c391.08$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.432,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes53c342.36$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No58c315.49$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c275$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c259.34$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c252.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.362,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No60c243$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2834853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c226.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.456,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes56c223$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.884,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes31c202.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.721,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No51c190$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.229038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c188.77$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.271,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No59c187.3$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.791,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No39c183.76$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…c987backed Yes41c182.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No58c181.05$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.042,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No56c174.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.615950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c152$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.282,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No67c142.87$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.631,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c142.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.482,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No43c135.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes36c134.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c130.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.429,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes49c129$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7924542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes24c119.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.212,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c119.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.314,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No64c111.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5254547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.712351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes10c104.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a96…c617backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527e…384ebacked No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes36c95.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c93.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.773,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No55c92.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5733746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c83.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.175,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No46c82.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No49c81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3113845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No57c81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8158358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes71c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c79.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.931,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes43c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.91,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes50c68.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.022,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce0…6606backed No59c67.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes66c65.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.515358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No57c65.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9549551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes45c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.352,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes37c54.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x095b…2971backed No56c53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes52c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.271,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2957747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No51c49.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.282751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes60c46.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8677851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes31c44.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7680130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No53c43.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6319648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No69c43.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No39c42.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes43c39.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9618043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes42c39.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.542,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe02d…bcffbacked No48c38.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.153647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes32c35.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34b0…05a6backed No54c35.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.243253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No55c35.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No53c34.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.341,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a8…552fbacked Yes44c34.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes46c32.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.092,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No69c32.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1146549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x273f…ef14backed Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204650%23 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked No51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.417540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.452758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No47c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8428456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c26.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.251764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.