NBA · resolved market
Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x079345b9bf98f3f6e65f6451438d6f29b73d4146c07b028bab6d2f0ae8aa6bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.9 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 44c | 5,049$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.01 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 60c | 5,033$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017.6 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 40c | 4,359$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.41 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 43c | 3,292$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.9 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 42c | 1,149$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.9 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed No | 45c | 1,050$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed No | 44c | 709$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.04 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 55c | 627.18$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.73 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 43c | 560$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 56c | 531$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Yes | 57c | 86.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 42c | 53.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 46c | 28.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Jazz won
- Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Julian Strawther: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
- Nuggets vs. JazzNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.