NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5b33440d110f995373b814f64cfb2d050e9af204d7143006be929b624427f5

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Nuggets, Jazz
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3ae5…ead2backed Jazz	57c	7,132$4,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,079.09	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	53c	5,649$2,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,655.8	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets	46c	3,516$1,605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,605.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets	47c	3,211$1,494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,494.24	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Nuggets	47c	3,200$1,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,504	221	43%95 W · 126 L	-12.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc920…7914backed Nuggets	47c	3,023$1,421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,420.97	86	48.8%42 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Jazz	53c	2,345$1,243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,102.14	214	46.7%100 W · 114 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Nuggets	47c	1,375$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.24	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets	47c	1,060$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.2	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets	47c	1,023$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.58	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Jazz	53c	999.99$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.99	291	49.5%144 W · 147 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Jazz	53c	999.44$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.74	261	49.4%129 W · 132 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets	44c	795$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.8	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Jazz	55c	727.62$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.62	440	52.5%231 W · 209 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets	45c	700.38$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.17	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets	47c	638.3$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Nuggets	47c	638.29$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets	47c	633.18$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.7	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Jazz	53c	616.57$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.79	458	50.4%231 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	53c	593.22$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.75	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Jazz	54c	554.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.29	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets	43c	511$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.73	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Nuggets	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	191	45.5%87 W · 104 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets	33c	379.09$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.1	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Jazz	68c	314.64$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.64	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Jazz	55c	311$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.84	149	59.7%89 W · 60 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Jazz	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Jazz	53c	297.87$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets	46c	230.59$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.25	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Jazz	54c	222.22$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.22	395	52.2%206 W · 189 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Nuggets	47c	170.25$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.02	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets	46c	129.03$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Nuggets	48c	116.94$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.89	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Nuggets	47c	113.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Nuggets	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Nuggets	27c	108$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	244	9.4%23 W · 221 L	-27.5wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Jazz	54c	103.74$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.72	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Jazz	60c	100.2$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.72	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Nuggets	47c	97.87$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz	54c	92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.32	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Jazz	54c	90.91$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.82	233	49.4%115 W · 118 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed Nuggets	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Jazz	76c	81$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	623	47.7%297 W · 326 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz	54c	65.69$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.22	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Nuggets	48c	65.58$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.35	301	51.8%156 W · 145 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets	46c	64.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Jazz	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Nuggets	35c	53.88$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Nuggets	47c	53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	76	50%38 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Nuggets	47c	52.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	80	55%44 W · 36 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz	65c	50.64$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.66	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets	42c	50.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…3ef9backed Nuggets	37c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa288…8a1dbacked Jazz	74c	49.95$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.17	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8f…1d65backed Jazz	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	51cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Jazz	54c	40.74$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.74	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Jazz	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	118	51.7%61 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Nuggets	39c	30.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf78…c4cabacked Nuggets	51c	29.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…1207backed Jazz	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca16…f901backed Jazz	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Nuggets	47c	25.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	533	49.3%263 W · 270 L	-28.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Nuggets	42c	24.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Jazz	58c	24.54$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.31	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…54f0backed Nuggets	47c	22.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Jazz	76c	21.72$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.11	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Jazz	54c	18.87$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.68	219	48.9%107 W · 112 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Jazz	73c	14.16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.82	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)this page
1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Jazz won
Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 1.5No won
Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5No won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Julian Strawther: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Keyonte George: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Nuggets vs. JazzNuggets won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Over won
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Jazz won
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Jazz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event