Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x081069666b5975ecb703c1a725fe1a0b11100e1487c1d66a8900cbc11bc5fefe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf99e…9fcbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,843$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed No | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 19c | 767.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 26c | 761.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 78c | 637$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 78c | 630$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 22c | 565.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 15c | 557.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed No | 21c | 550$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 79c | 478$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 448.09$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 426.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 22c | 420$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 22c | 352$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed No | 26c | 342.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 19c | 292$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 15c | 291.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 74c | 289.95$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 18c | 288.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 74c | 268.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 76c | 262$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 78c | 256.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 77c | 235$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 25c | 224.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…ee98backed No | 29c | 203.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 169$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 79c | 159$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 24c | 155$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 21c | 155$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 153.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…e6b2backed Yes | 73c | 143.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 74c | 128.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 119.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 112.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 16c | 108.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 21c | 95.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed No | 25c | 79.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…2e9ebacked Yes | 77c | 69.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 23c | 65.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 20c | 55.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes | 76c | 52.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…ce37backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…0f45backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 80c | 44.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 63c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…b87fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…3edabacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 76c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 77c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Avatar Fire and Ash win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Sirat win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.