TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open: Elmer Moeller vs Federico Cina

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elmer Moellerof Elmer Moeller, Federico Cina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$349,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Federico Cina10c26,413$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.657,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Federico Cina0c18,801$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.851236.5%187 W · 325 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Federico Cina12c15,352$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.914,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Elmer Moeller62c14,660$9,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,583.5814757.1%84 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…4682backed Federico Cina19c9,179$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.893318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Federico Cina41c8,876$3,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,682.5512146.3%56 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Federico Cina1c5,593$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.931,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Federico Cina39c5,546$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.082,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Federico Cina37c4,845$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.764,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Federico Cina9c4,629$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.5985348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Federico Cina33c4,102$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f75…af7ebacked Elmer Moeller60c4,059$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.7910761.7%66 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Federico Cina7c3,992$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.042,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e26…e4d1backed Elmer Moeller78c3,937$3,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.6610436.5%38 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Federico Cina34c3,490$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.61,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Federico Cina21c2,898$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.614,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Elmer Moeller59c2,309$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.7293055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Federico Cina14c2,231$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.366,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Federico Cina9c2,095$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5260446.7%282 W · 322 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Federico Cina9c2,095$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5276853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Federico Cina37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74058734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Federico Cina14c1,910$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.826,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Federico Cina41c1,890$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.317541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa813…b12dbacked Elmer Moeller61c1,523$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Federico Cina41c1,409$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.7962545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…105dbacked Federico Cina40c1,406$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Federico Cina23c1,272$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.525,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Federico Cina41c1,201$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.418946.1%41 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed Federico Cina39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3902425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Elmer Moeller61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39010641.5%44 W · 62 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Elmer Moeller61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Federico Cina15c1,000$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14940836.8%150 W · 258 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Elmer Moeller61c998.75$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.5118247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Federico Cina30c887.01$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7227231.3%85 W · 187 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Federico Cina39c804.44$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.738248.8%40 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Federico Cina15c789.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.29250%46 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Elmer Moeller62c787.67$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.319560%57 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Elmer Moeller63c776.03$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.131,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Elmer Moeller63c748.22$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0818849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Elmer Moeller61c745.52$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.7558639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Federico Cina36c699.61$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2519657.1%112 W · 84 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Federico Cina38c659.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7236244.8%162 W · 200 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Federico Cina41c613.6$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5897745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d0…b8ddbacked Federico Cina3c594.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-63.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Elmer Moeller58c588.81$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.35158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Federico Cina39c583.92$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.463,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ca…8850backed Elmer Moeller78c548.49$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.356732.8%22 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Elmer Moeller70c543.24$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0221451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Federico Cina29c539.78$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.958048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked Federico Cina25c513.84$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2912249.2%60 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Elmer Moeller61c499.99$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Federico Cina39c494.05$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6829444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Federico Cina22c477.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2529241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Elmer Moeller62c472.06$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8825957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Elmer Moeller61c469.91$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2689850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Federico Cina38c468.44$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.013,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Elmer Moeller66c445.34$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4784963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Elmer Moeller61c409.67$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.641947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Elmer Moeller68c406.21$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.991,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb20…bea0backed Federico Cina30c400.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4114132.6%46 W · 95 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Elmer Moeller64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14448941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa6…d3c2backed Elmer Moeller62c394.03$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.7346562.6%291 W · 174 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Elmer Moeller65c373.34$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.488350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Elmer Moeller59c363.42$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14926545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Federico Cina27c354.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6138739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Federico Cina41c352.9$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6967239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc35a…688ebacked Federico Cina41c338.98$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Elmer Moeller65c338.61$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5112949.6%64 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Elmer Moeller59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.562470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Elmer Moeller60c324.95$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.741,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Elmer Moeller60c317.5$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12710646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Elmer Moeller66c310.67$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6311158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Federico Cina36c308.87$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.191,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Elmer Moeller64c306.19$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5382560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Elmer Moeller59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12326049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Federico Cina39c299.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Federico Cina37c291.27$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.774436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Federico Cina38c291.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.387,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Federico Cina39c289.48$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.711,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa54c…a355backed Federico Cina16c289.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Federico Cina40c283.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3728038.2%107 W · 173 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d12…4070backed Elmer Moeller59c282.57$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7110254.9%56 W · 46 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Federico Cina41c265.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Federico Cina34c261.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4418932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked Federico Cina41c258.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1812750.4%64 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Federico Cina15c253.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.961,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Federico Cina25c249.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.353,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb3…6bfebacked Elmer Moeller61c240.15$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.661283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+53.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Federico Cina14c237.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1984736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Federico Cina38c222.68$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6254345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1b…67d3backed Elmer Moeller63c221.26$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.862584%21 W · 4 L+6.2wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+47.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Federico Cina14c219.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.556754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Federico Cina38c217$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4656827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Federico Cina38c202.69$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0225250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…b93dbacked Federico Cina38c202.69$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0211844.9%53 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ab3…2669backed Elmer Moeller63c199.58$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.843246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Elmer Moeller66c189.05$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.819,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Federico Cina38c187.55$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.271,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Elmer Moeller62c173.37$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8864350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Federico Cina38c169.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3999056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.