NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b5539e638185d42e28ad6f19f0e5fee533f72e620672b466b0c77d8db821137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,945 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Bulls | 50c | 46,067$23,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,033.57 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls | 50c | 24,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Bulls | 50c | 13,650$6,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,825 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 12,209$6,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,104.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Cavaliers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 50c | 7,129$3,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.42 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 4,893$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Bulls | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers | 50c | 3,750$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 3,300$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Bulls | 64c | 2,587$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.97 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 17c | 1,866$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,848$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.61 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Cavaliers | 43c | 1,300$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bulls | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 50c | 800$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Cavaliers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…d64fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 392.16$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Cavaliers | 52c | 390.27$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.9 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Cavaliers | 74c | 303.47$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Bulls | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Cavaliers | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 110.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Cavaliers | 49c | 69.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers | 49c | 69.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…81f7backed Bulls | 51c | 52.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Cavaliers | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Cavaliers | 50c | 46.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bulls | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bulls | 46c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Bulls | 47c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Cavaliers | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…8ca1backed Bulls | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers | 50c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. BullsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.