TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Bulls

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,361,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,361,369 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls20c106,135$21,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,227.0248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Bulls21c100,000$20,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,823.0611547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Cavaliers80c65,000$52,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,00011955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Bulls21c59,960$12,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,591.619957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Bulls19c43,190$8,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,100.8922453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Bulls16c40,176$6,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,428.1932653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bulls15c36,648$5,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,431.071,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Bulls15c36,015$5,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,431.4817050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bulls19c23,145$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,397.4759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bulls19c23,007$4,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.271,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bulls13c22,939$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.0932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Bulls19c21,033$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,066.2641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae76…9ba9backed Bulls19c20,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.991376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+33%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Bulls16c19,292$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.7113842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bulls16c19,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0101,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers80c16,224$12,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.543,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Bulls19c15,789$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Cavaliers80c15,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.031,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478d…9ea9backed Bulls14c14,900$2,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls20c13,684$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.891,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Bulls14c12,573$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.5447028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bulls6c11,508$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.051,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Bulls13c10,824$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.1228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Bulls17c10,606$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.5224831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers80c10,330$8,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0662,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls16c10,214$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.21,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bulls14c9,855$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.412,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Bulls18c9,522$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.9512042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Bulls20c9,080$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.8416440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Cavaliers79c8,200$6,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68539349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls17c8,135$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.751,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Cavaliers80c7,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls16c7,070$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.492,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Bulls11c7,011$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.9265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49a3…91bbbacked Bulls14c6,550$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9176347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Bulls19c6,506$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.1411241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bulls13c6,439$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.0727424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Bulls15c6,346$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.925546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls18c6,084$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Bulls19c5,680$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.5524841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Bulls14c5,098$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.0561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Bulls14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bulls14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Cavaliers79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05022140.3%89 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…0f2bbacked Bulls15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7506440.6%26 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls19c4,946$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bulls12c4,775$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.9981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls13c4,607$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.851,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bulls17c4,473$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.611,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bulls19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Cavaliers79c3,774$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.223268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Bulls14c3,600$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5044445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Bulls9c3,417$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3931345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Bulls17c3,232$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.4411335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Bulls13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Bulls16c2,909$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.0436950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…3656backed Bulls14c2,900$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4068759.8%52 W · 35 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers80c2,741$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.291,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x270b…809abacked Bulls14c2,700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls14c2,621$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.53,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Bulls20c2,620$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52417356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Bulls21c2,381$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2d…40b1backed Bulls17c2,355$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8332330.7%99 W · 224 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Bulls21c2,264$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.54148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Bulls15c2,242$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3638253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Cavaliers80c2,211$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.2529347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Bulls14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab5…ff12backed Bulls5c2,031$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.573917.9%7 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Cavaliers79c2,018$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.7120352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cavaliers79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e12…84debacked Bulls14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x046c…8ca3backed Bulls17c1,777$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.099330.1%28 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bulls8c1,749$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6326353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls14c1,740$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bulls3c1,667$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.847211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d5…3faebacked Bulls14c1,590$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.61566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf83…a140backed Bulls16c1,563$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.924250%21 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Bulls19c1,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2854841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Bulls20c1,460$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29220537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Bulls19c1,400$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26619840.9%81 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab0…ddd0backed Cavaliers73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.861154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b02…b95fbacked Cavaliers80c1,321$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.6211766.7%78 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bulls27c1,265$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.231,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bulls15c1,260$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9680653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Bulls20c1,249$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8716139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4192…278ebacked Bulls14c1,200$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked Cavaliers80c1,125$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bulls18c1,120$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.141,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Bulls20c1,093$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.525831%18 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Bulls14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017532%56 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Bulls23c1,011$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.0438540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Bulls20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Bulls19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Bulls14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14062539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Cavaliers79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2108653.5%46 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Cavaliers80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015146.4%70 W · 81 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d37…ec74backed Bulls20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Bulls19c999.97$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9923938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.