NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830a1b460a1406dccce713f433b8de52a7c077a76662a1c6d7a36d4042a9a5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,459 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…88b4backed Bulls | 52c | 25,411$13,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,197.2 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls | 53c | 18,868$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,867.91 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 13,055$6,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,139.57 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 48c | 12,762$6,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,134.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls | 52c | 9,890$5,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,747.38 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls | 51c | 7,296$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.62 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 51c | 6,511$3,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 52c | 5,255$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.17 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 3,950$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.92 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 48c | 3,170$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,982$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.71 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 52c | 2,863$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,258$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers | 48c | 1,968$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.64 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Bulls | 53c | 1,778$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.86 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,531$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.01 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 887.08$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.76 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960e…77d6backed Bulls | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Cavaliers | 48c | 454.66$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bulls | 48c | 399.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.98 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…1f9bbacked Bulls | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 49c | 273.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bulls | 54c | 247.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…4857backed Cavaliers | 53c | 243.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Cavaliers | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Bulls | 53c | 195.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bulls | 55c | 187$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bulls | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bulls | 53c | 159.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 157$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Bulls | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Bulls | 53c | 116.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Cavaliers | 49c | 108.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Bulls | 51c | 102.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cavaliers | 53c | 99.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55d…001ebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 94.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…8fe6backed Bulls | 54c | 85.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Bulls | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Cavaliers | 48c | 70.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…a600backed Cavaliers | 53c | 52.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ced…97e5backed Cavaliers | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Cavaliers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Cavaliers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bulls | 53c | 46.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bulls | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Cavaliers | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Bulls | 52c | 35.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Cavaliers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 29.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 27.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 26.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 180 | 60.6%109 W · 71 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Bulls | 53c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Cavaliers | 49c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Cavaliers | 48c | 23.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 278 | 47.1%131 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Bulls | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Bulls | 51c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Bulls | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. BullsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.