NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2712c15f9e934b8c6baaf3cb45e6a892874f57d83fc0c4adc440e4c06fa9ea66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 52c | 24,658$12,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,717.2 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 45c | 9,066$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.65 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 55c | 9,059$4,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,076.68 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 7,183$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,379.6 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 6,863$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.13 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 55c | 4,583$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.36 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…a60cbacked Over | 45c | 4,266$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 3,015$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.47 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,721$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 47c | 1,643$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 1,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Under | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…cb68backed Over | 47c | 954.98$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.84 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 45c | 911.71$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.27 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 903.47$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.76 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 853.49$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Over | 45c | 755.56$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 675.15$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.32 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 44c | 663.64$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 639$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.71 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 582.52$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.97 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 503.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.69 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 57c | 466.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 335.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 316.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 297$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 228.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Under | 56c | 222.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ef…c065backed Under | 49c | 202.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 53c | 183.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 46c | 145.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac94…e414backed Over | 45c | 142.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 54c | 135.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 55c | 110.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 109.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 96.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 90.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…50b3backed Over | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Under | 51c | 49.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d9…91a2backed Under | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 40c | 40.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Under | 60c | 40.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Over | 41c | 35.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…8c15backed Under | 53c | 34.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Under | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…4423backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 54c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 49c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 43c | 25.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 56c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Over | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. BullsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.