NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8bef8904d6b9ec4f260731813482bfa4610d23758bc26fe3c9a3ebc733cc79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,849 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bulls | 53c | 15,737$8,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,398.86 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 52c | 12,744$6,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,065.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Cavaliers | 49c | 8,521$4,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,132.96 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 4,211$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Bulls | 50c | 3,731$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.62 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 2,995$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.78 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,715$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,667$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.3 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Cavaliers | 47c | 2,507$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.1 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,391$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Cavaliers | 47c | 2,154$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Bulls | 55c | 1,122$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.24 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Cavaliers | 58c | 1,061$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.41 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 1,014$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Cavaliers | 46c | 630$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 54c | 402.08$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bulls | 52c | 378.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls | 39c | 360.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.35 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bulls | 53c | 270.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 217.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Bulls | 57c | 214$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cavaliers | 48c | 193$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 47c | 181.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Cavaliers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 53c | 149.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 44c | 146.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Cavaliers | 44c | 110.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Cavaliers | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bulls | 52c | 95.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 48c | 93.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 52.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Cavaliers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…ec74backed Cavaliers | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 42.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Bulls | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 31.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Bulls | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Cavaliers | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Cavaliers | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cavaliers | 59c | 28.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Cavaliers | 46c | 22.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. BullsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Collin Sexton: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.