TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,294 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No57c2,325$1,328 inWon+$997.731,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1078…b0a2backed Yes44c700$308 inLost-$3085433.3%18 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No56c700$392 inWon+$30865762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Yes41c694.65$285 inLost-$2856040%24 W · 36 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No56c454.09$256 inWon+$197.7314634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes45c446.4$200 inLost-$2008145.7%37 W · 44 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No58c420.46$246 inWon+$174.884,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9d…8498backed Yes42c303.67$128 inLost-$127.665648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df1…aa1ebacked Yes40c298.3$119 inLost-$118.981915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-61.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51bc…f2fabacked Yes43c213.03$92 inLost-$92.12321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8744…9165backed Yes44c204$91 inLost-$90.522045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No59c179.48$106 inWon+$73.8683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Yes43c174.4$75 inLost-$759555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b2…850fbacked Yes39c128.42$50 inLost-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+228.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b91…ac5cbacked Yes44c115$50 inLost-$50.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes44c75$33 inLost-$3315651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No58c70.15$40 inWon+$29.792058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaf…2494backed Yes41c61.23$25 inLost-$25.0350%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…23ccbacked Yes40c60$24 inLost-$242030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No58c40$23 inWon+$16.860267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ff…e6f6backed Yes41c39.27$16 inLost-$16.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No57c34.85$20 inWon+$14.8597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…a088backed Yes43c30.95$13 inLost-$13.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No57c30$17 inWon+$12.996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa44d…bd1dbacked No58c27.66$16 inWon+$11.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Yes43c24.47$10 inLost-$10.461315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-54.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No59c17.84$10 inWon+$7.3832866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.