TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cason Wallace: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce93…6d96backed No79c316$250 inLost-$249.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a09…c3a3backed Yes21c316$66 inWon+$249.643100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+592.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No38c172.14$65 inLost-$65.415,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Yes62c80.65$50 inWon+$30.6515149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Yes62c64.52$40 inWon+$24.5214547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ace…aeb7backed Yes55c45.43$25 inWon+$20.448941.6%37 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No45c45.43$20 inLost-$20.441,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No43c28.21$12 inLost-$12.261,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Yes56c23.21$13 inWon+$10.2132654.3%177 W · 149 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes62c19.84$12 inWon+$7.5410844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.