TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Thunder, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b41…01c7backed Thunder1c3,960$40 inLost-$39.953839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Pistons55c1,000$550 inWon+$4505844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder46c635.43$295 inLost-$294.915,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Thunder42c585.53$246 inLost-$245.5448956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Pistons65c543$353 inWon+$190.247359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pistons47c531.07$250 inWon+$280.581,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder26c285$74 inLost-$74.11,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3644…671abacked Pistons61c163.93$100 inWon+$63.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Thunder49c139.14$68 inLost-$68.1837848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6528…2dcebacked Pistons76c129.87$99 inWon+$31.177766.2%51 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Pistons20c98.05$20 inWon+$78.448944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder51c98.04$50 inLost-$501,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe516…14ffbacked Thunder29c72.41$21 inLost-$211225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed Pistons56c53.57$30 inWon+$23.579328%26 W · 67 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24a5…b68dbacked Thunder30c50$15 inLost-$155632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed Thunder69c25.81$18 inLost-$17.812540%10 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Pistons70c20$14 inWon+$622456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.