TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No53c1,301$688 inWon+$613.081,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22fb…26a7backed Yes45c356.45$160 inLost-$1601513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1df1…aa1ebacked Yes45c340.98$153 inLost-$153.441915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-61.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Yes18c316.42$57 inLost-$5715149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No46c299.98$138 inWon+$161.9965762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…737ebacked Yes45c223.53$100 inLost-$1001471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Yes38c183.03$69 inLost-$69.3514547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Yes57c132.11$75 inLost-$759555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef7…51abbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No56c80.4$45 inWon+$35.683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b91…ac5cbacked Yes48c65.04$31 inLost-$31.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dca…ff05backed Yes54c55.56$30 inLost-$301450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No54c52.57$28 inWon+$24.3492058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7598…5e40backed Yes43c47.27$21 inLost-$20.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ad…5914backed Yes43c46.65$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No55c36.71$20 inWon+$16.5697049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes56c35.48$20 inLost-$2030055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No44c30$13 inWon+$16.860267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a6…3a93backed Yes54c27.77$15 inLost-$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+80.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No57c26.99$15 inWon+$11.564,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.