TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeead…1087backed Under45c7,333$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8843…c7adbacked Over55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d6…4b02backed Over55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c1,534$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.919,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Over55c910$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.5634855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under43c740$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.21,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c596.6$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.574,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c545.66$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c490.25$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.233,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over26c416.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.1914634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Over57c363.16$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1620147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Over57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8826048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x463e…fa00backed Over55c333.32$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over57c315.37$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.611,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.933,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506855.9%38 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under46c296.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.864,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.782,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c266.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Over56c261.64$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7411245.5%51 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e70…7214backed Over55c252.4$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe55d…2335backed Under46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Over55c182$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.969049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Over55c172.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0815534.2%53 W · 102 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3644…671abacked Over71c150.7$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.71050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under29c150.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.63,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c134$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.356547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under45c111.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4458754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd3…74bcbacked Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10e…18dfbacked Over54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under53c97.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8254351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Over57c96.49$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4916261.7%100 W · 62 L+15.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…ce87backed Over54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5915149%74 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Over54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5914547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…d308backed Over54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5912464.5%80 W · 44 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62da…2fdabacked Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.294557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c79.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.144,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f5…4b0dbacked Over56c71.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.87540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over47c63.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under45c61.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.742,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6b…1fbebacked Over67c56.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Over46c51.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.76841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Over46c51.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.76437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over48c50.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.332,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over48c50.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6362844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.568645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over51c48.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7637665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over55c43.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under42c40.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1850841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7137344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under52c32.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.983,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Over64c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1224358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Under46c26.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217444.3%77 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec3…9aa3backed Over54c25.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over55c25.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Over58c25.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6411949.6%59 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Under46c23.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8711826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…83f4backed Over57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.