TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf641…7b6fbacked No0c27,377$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes27c14,283$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,426.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No57c13,417$7,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,642.8928345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No73c5,250$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.54740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No73c5,206$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.0820845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Yes51c3,141$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.894351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes31c3,107$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No73c2,943$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.942259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No73c2,678$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.78547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes33c2,377$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x308d…3519backed Yes41c1,889$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No73c1,863$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.8918644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes44c1,783$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.831,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No57c1,548$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.558451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db3…667abacked Yes69c1,381$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.771266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes39c1,216$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.764043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf067…5c6dbacked Yes28c1,071$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes38c999.98$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No53c977.03$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.846755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked No71c885$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.358458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes29c881.5$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No45c875.11$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed Yes29c700$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked No30c650.37$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Yes39c623.31$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.94557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes27c600.04$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.0329855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Yes43c582.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Yes56c567.54$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5370…84adbacked Yes77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.481346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No55c509.41$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.097455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No61c494.78$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9614755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c483.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4411447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c5…2909backed Yes29c480$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes31c383.18$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.743633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Yes28c379.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.5928755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Yes66c373.64$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked No72c361.11$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed No49c360.73$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No48c352.41$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1339857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0c…a1aabacked Yes29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+160.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No59c338.13$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1126445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes29c336.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.96940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No55c331$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2910549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea87…1ad7backed Yes61c328.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+147.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes28c304.35$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.1333047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…4697backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.121758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes47c275.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.781656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72fc…b1fbbacked Yes29c275.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Yes26c271.52$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.922133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…6b66backed Yes52c259.62$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.622030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x866c…19c0backed Yes61c251.23$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d25…5529backed Yes44c220$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef5a…492abacked Yes29c189.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Yes31c173.16$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.76944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…e961backed No59c152.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes33c151.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed No66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6802…da5ebacked No68c147.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Yes34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No62c141.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7727554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes67c141.17$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.691040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf558…3c42backed No72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No68c135.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.768541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No66c134.57$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.393,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…ba40backed No60c130.68$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked No79c124$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.962268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No65c123.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.638844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Yes33c121.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.181533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No72c120.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1720251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes29c113.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.793450%17 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Yes27c108$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.844634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No48c107.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.333046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes67c104.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.245756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Yes77c103.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7210864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes34c97.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.062245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ab…144bbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…2cfbbacked Yes34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes30c83.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.332231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…664cbacked Yes30c83.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.331947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b5a2backed Yes49c79.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f0…8722backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2c…d911backed Yes37c69.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes42c67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8614055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No71c62.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x836f…e56cbacked Yes62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a24…36ddbacked Yes34c58.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No71c56.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Yes69c52.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.983658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc067…e97cbacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+61.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a29…fa8dbacked Yes41c47.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.121,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Yes34c41.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de6…8b3cbacked No74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Yes68c40.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.